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2024年1月 加入
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分享個人資料
Polymarket
在 Polymarket 查看
總收益
$118,416.46
1天
−$2.45萬
7天
−$4.92萬
30天
−$5,147.8
90天
−$6.54萬
總交易量
$9786.07萬
預測次數
20,877
持倉價值
$18.39萬
盈虧走勢
歷史盈虧走勢
1天
1周
1月
今年
全部
交易
−$35.29萬
LP 獎勵
+$45.62萬
Maker 返利
+$1.48萬
持倉獎勵
+$772.61
Taker 返利
+$17.21
費用
−$519.91
排名概覽
綜合
#1,013
共 330.2萬 個錢包
交易量
#215
共 330.2萬 個錢包
利潤
#3,248,798
共 330.2萬 個錢包
LP 獎勵
#7
共 18.9萬 個獲獎地址
Maker 返利
#552
共 16.1萬 個獲獎地址
Taker 返利
#21,873
共 7.2萬 個獲獎地址
持倉獎勵
#665
共 35.2萬 個獲獎地址
已付費用
#40,476
共 153.5萬 個付費地址
持倉
活動
評論
當前
已平倉
市場
平均 → 當前
成交額
獲勝可得
價值
分享
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
No 100.0¢
1.6萬 份
分享
75.3¢
→
100.0¢
$1.22萬
$1.62萬
$1.62萬
+$3,992.83
(+32.7%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
9,901.1 份
分享
88.4¢
→
100.0¢
$8,755.62
$9,901.11
$9,896.16
+$1,140.54
(+13.0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
8,142.5 份
分享
91.0¢
→
100.0¢
$7,406.04
$8,142.48
$8,138.41
+$732.37
(+9.9%)
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
No 10.4¢
5.2萬 份
分享
68.6¢
→
10.4¢
$3.6萬
$5.24萬
$5,453.09
−$3.05萬
(-84.8%)
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
No 100.0¢
4,902.8 份
分享
93.2¢
→
100.0¢
$4,570.07
$4,902.75
$4,900.3
+$330.23
(+7.2%)
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
Yes 98.7¢
4,789.8 份
分享
59.7¢
→
98.7¢
$2,859.46
$4,789.79
$4,725.12
+$1,865.66
(+65.2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
No 100.0¢
4,051.6 份
分享
94.5¢
→
100.0¢
$3,828.45
$4,051.55
$4,049.52
+$221.07
(+5.8%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No 95.7¢
4,068.2 份
分享
94.8¢
→
95.7¢
$3,856.67
$4,068.22
$3,893.29
+$36.61
(+0.9%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
3,864.8 份
分享
93.0¢
→
100.0¢
$3,594.67
$3,864.76
$3,862.83
+$268.16
(+7.5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
No 78.5¢
4,913.8 份
分享
76.2¢
→
78.5¢
$3,745.19
$4,913.8
$3,857.33
+$112.15
(+3.0%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
3,052.7 份
分享
84.8¢
→
100.0¢
$2,589.67
$3,052.7
$3,051.18
+$461.51
(+17.8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 96.8¢
2,987.8 份
分享
35.6¢
→
96.8¢
$1,064.77
$2,987.8
$2,890.7
+$1,825.93
(+171.5%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 56.1¢
5,117.9 份
分享
34.0¢
→
56.1¢
$1,738.51
$5,117.89
$2,873.69
+$1,135.19
(+65.3%)
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
No 87¢
2,422.5 份
分享
88.1¢
→
87¢
$2,135.32
$2,422.49
$2,107.57
−$27.75
(-1.3%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
2,000 份
分享
94.3¢
→
100.0¢
$1,887
$2,000
$1,999
+$112
(+5.9%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
No 22.5¢
8,174.3 份
分享
24.4¢
→
22.5¢
$1,996.92
$8,174.32
$1,839.22
−$157.7
(-7.9%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
No 92.5¢
1,917.4 份
分享
74.5¢
→
92.5¢
$1,428.87
$1,917.42
$1,773.61
+$344.74
(+24.1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 27.1¢
6,051.1 份
分享
43.9¢
→
27.1¢
$2,658.43
$6,051.08
$1,636.82
−$1,021.61
(-38.4%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No 98.5¢
1,613.2 份
分享
98.9¢
→
98.5¢
$1,594.83
$1,613.16
$1,588.15
−$6.67
(-0.4%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?
No 99.7¢
1,560.3 份
分享
33.0¢
→
99.7¢
$514.89
$1,560.34
$1,554.87
+$1,039.99
(+202.0%)
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
No 100.0¢
1,513 份
分享
95.6¢
→
100.0¢
$1,446.97
$1,512.95
$1,512.19
+$65.23
(+4.5%)
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
No 100.0¢
1,474.4 份
分享
89.5¢
→
100.0¢
$1,319.73
$1,474.45
$1,473.71
+$153.98
(+11.7%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
No 100.0¢
1,432.3 份
分享
74.3¢
→
100.0¢
$1,064.02
$1,432.31
$1,431.6
+$367.57
(+34.5%)
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
Yes 98.6¢
1,362.4 份
分享
65.8¢
→
98.6¢
$896.38
$1,362.38
$1,343.31
+$446.93
(+49.9%)
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?
No 100.0¢
1,294.3 份
分享
96.8¢
→
100.0¢
$1,253.15
$1,294.27
$1,293.63
+$40.47
(+3.2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
No 98.5¢
1,305.7 份
分享
42¢
→
98.5¢
$548.39
$1,305.69
$1,286.11
+$737.72
(+134.5%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes 39.8¢
3,125.1 份
分享
42.9¢
→
39.8¢
$1,339.73
$3,125.15
$1,242.25
−$97.48
(-7.3%)
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
No 80.5¢
1,378.7 份
分享
85.3¢
→
80.5¢
$1,176.53
$1,378.73
$1,109.88
−$66.65
(-5.7%)
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
No 88¢
1,226.9 份
分享
84.8¢
→
88¢
$1,040.85
$1,226.91
$1,079.68
+$38.84
(+3.7%)
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
No 89.5¢
1,095.7 份
分享
92¢
→
89.5¢
$1,008.01
$1,095.66
$980.61
−$27.39
(-2.7%)
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
No 99.3¢
938.9 份
分享
34.3¢
→
99.3¢
$322.38
$938.9
$931.86
+$609.48
(+189.1%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
No 60¢
1,513.2 份
分享
59.1¢
→
60¢
$893.8
$1,513.23
$907.94
+$14.13
(+1.6%)
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Yes 3.8¢
2.4萬 份
分享
2.8¢
→
3.8¢
$669.32
$2.41萬
$903.61
+$234.29
(+35.0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
No 98.0¢
901.6 份
分享
79.7¢
→
98.0¢
$718.41
$901.55
$883.97
+$165.57
(+23.0%)
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
No 77.5¢
1,129.6 份
分享
81.6¢
→
77.5¢
$922.23
$1,129.63
$875.47
−$46.77
(-5.1%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?
No 99¢
879.8 份
分享
56.8¢
→
99¢
$499.76
$879.84
$871.04
+$371.28
(+74.3%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
No 98.0¢
872 份
分享
31.5¢
→
98.0¢
$274.46
$871.98
$854.98
+$580.52
(+211.5%)
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?
No 92¢
907.9 份
分享
82.3¢
→
92¢
$747.14
$907.91
$835.28
+$88.14
(+11.8%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
No 92.5¢
824.6 份
分享
92¢
→
92.5¢
$758.59
$824.55
$762.71
+$4.12
(+0.5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
No 64¢
1,141.5 份
分享
55.7¢
→
64¢
$636.27
$1,141.53
$730.58
+$94.31
(+14.8%)
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
No 99.6¢
719.4 份
分享
91.7¢
→
99.6¢
$659.88
$719.38
$716.5
+$56.62
(+8.6%)
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No 68.0¢
1,039.3 份
分享
67.9¢
→
68.0¢
$705.33
$1,039.28
$706.19
+$0.86
(+0.1%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Yes 99.8¢
702.7 份
分享
96.4¢
→
99.8¢
$677.39
$702.69
$700.93
+$23.54
(+3.5%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
692.5 份
分享
95.7¢
→
100.0¢
$662.94
$692.49
$692.14
+$29.2
(+4.4%)
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
No 79.5¢
826.3 份
分享
85¢
→
79.5¢
$702.34
$826.29
$656.9
−$45.45
(-6.5%)
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
No 89.4¢
712.5 份
分享
93.3¢
→
89.4¢
$664.76
$712.46
$636.94
−$27.82
(-4.2%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
No 95.5¢
658.5 份
分享
86.6¢
→
95.5¢
$570.39
$658.46
$628.83
+$58.44
(+10.2%)
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Yes 99.3¢
628.6 份
分享
65.2¢
→
99.3¢
$409.72
$628.64
$623.93
+$214.21
(+52.3%)
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?
No 88.5¢
668.2 份
分享
89.8¢
→
88.5¢
$600
$668.24
$591.39
−$8.61
(-1.4%)
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Yes 24.5¢
2,410.9 份
分享
28.0¢
→
24.5¢
$675.06
$2,410.93
$590.68
−$84.38
(-12.5%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
No 90.5¢
645.3 份
分享
72.3¢
→
90.5¢
$466.61
$645.32
$584.01
+$117.41
(+25.2%)
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?
No 100.0¢
541.8 份
分享
96.5¢
→
100.0¢
$522.83
$541.76
$541.49
+$18.66
(+3.6%)
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
No 97.2¢
550.2 份
分享
90¢
→
97.2¢
$495.16
$550.18
$534.5
+$39.34
(+7.9%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
No 68.7¢
777.4 份
分享
68.6¢
→
68.7¢
$533.63
$777.43
$533.71
+$0.08
(+0.0%)
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No 31.5¢
1,656.2 份
分享
32.0¢
→
31.5¢
$530.91
$1,656.23
$521.71
−$9.2
(-1.7%)
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
No 89¢
580.4 份
分享
83.1¢
→
89¢
$482.48
$580.41
$516.56
+$34.08
(+7.1%)
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 80% by March 31?
No 92.5¢
554.6 份
分享
94¢
→
92.5¢
$521.36
$554.64
$513.04
−$8.32
(-1.6%)
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
No 100.0¢
508.7 份
分享
71.9¢
→
100.0¢
$365.71
$508.7
$508.45
+$142.74
(+39.0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?
No 47¢
1,077.8 份
分享
48.0¢
→
47¢
$517.17
$1,077.82
$506.58
−$10.6
(-2.0%)
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Yes 99.9¢
507 份
分享
93.0¢
→
99.9¢
$471.41
$507.01
$506.25
+$34.84
(+7.4%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
No 98.4¢
509.1 份
分享
93.8¢
→
98.4¢
$477.38
$509.13
$500.98
+$23.6
(+4.9%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
No 60.3¢
822.9 份
分享
54.1¢
→
60.3¢
$445.28
$822.87
$495.78
+$50.5
(+11.3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?
No 99¢
500 份
分享
83¢
→
99¢
$415
$500
$495
+$80
(+19.3%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
No 64¢
773.3 份
分享
65.0¢
→
64¢
$502.98
$773.29
$494.91
−$8.07
(-1.6%)
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
No 41.5¢
1,190.4 份
分享
49.0¢
→
41.5¢
$583.5
$1,190.38
$494.01
−$89.5
(-15.3%)
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
No 68.2¢
721.5 份
分享
83.5¢
→
68.2¢
$602.41
$721.45
$492.03
−$110.38
(-18.3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
No 97.8¢
500 份
分享
65¢
→
97.8¢
$325
$500
$488.75
+$163.75
(+50.4%)
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?
No 89.7¢
539 份
分享
80.5¢
→
89.7¢
$433.97
$539.04
$483.52
+$49.55
(+11.4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
No 77.5¢
623.7 份
分享
76.4¢
→
77.5¢
$476.64
$623.67
$483.35
+$6.7
(+1.4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 13.7¢
3,479.7 份
分享
20.8¢
→
13.7¢
$722.52
$3,479.7
$474.98
−$247.54
(-34.3%)
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
No 100.0¢
465.6 份
分享
95.8¢
→
100.0¢
$446.07
$465.64
$465.4
+$19.34
(+4.3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
No 44.5¢
1,043.5 份
分享
56.3¢
→
44.5¢
$587.62
$1,043.51
$464.36
−$123.25
(-21.0%)
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
Yes 52.5¢
860.4 份
分享
55.0¢
→
52.5¢
$473.18
$860.45
$451.73
−$21.45
(-4.5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
No 99.3¢
449.1 份
分享
74.0¢
→
99.3¢
$332.44
$449.14
$446
+$113.56
(+34.2%)
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
No 85.0¢
522.6 份
分享
87.9¢
→
85.0¢
$459.67
$522.64
$443.98
−$15.69
(-3.4%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
No 96.8¢
451.9 份
分享
78.4¢
→
96.8¢
$354.46
$451.9
$437.44
+$82.98
(+23.4%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
No 82.7¢
524.9 份
分享
80.0¢
→
82.7¢
$419.72
$524.93
$434.12
+$14.4
(+3.4%)
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?
No 87.3¢
490.9 份
分享
88.5¢
→
87.3¢
$434.3
$490.9
$428.56
−$5.74
(-1.3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?
No 78¢
544.1 份
分享
56.9¢
→
78¢
$309.74
$544.06
$424.37
+$114.62
(+37.0%)
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 62¢
668.4 份
分享
60.1¢
→
62¢
$401.76
$668.45
$414.44
+$12.68
(+3.2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes 1.4¢
3萬 份
分享
20¢
→
1.4¢
$5,933.16
$2.97萬
$400.49
−$5,532.67
(-93.3%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
No 69¢
578.8 份
分享
73.7¢
→
69¢
$426.74
$578.76
$399.34
−$27.4
(-6.4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
No 88.5¢
447.4 份
分享
47.1¢
→
88.5¢
$210.56
$447.42
$395.96
+$185.41
(+88.1%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No 96.8¢
403.5 份
分享
71.9¢
→
96.8¢
$290.27
$403.45
$390.34
+$100.07
(+34.5%)
Shapiro's Democratic nomination odds hit 8% by December 31?
No 86.5¢
448.7 份
分享
87.2¢
→
86.5¢
$391.43
$448.73
$388.15
−$3.28
(-0.8%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
No 76.3¢
502.8 份
分享
80.8¢
→
76.3¢
$406.15
$502.77
$383.87
−$22.29
(-5.5%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 99.9¢
380.5 份
分享
70.2¢
→
99.9¢
$267.14
$380.49
$380.11
+$112.98
(+42.3%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
No 95.7¢
397.1 份
分享
76¢
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95.7¢
$301.82
$397.13
$380.05
+$78.23
(+25.9%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
No 99.9¢
380.3 份
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34.1¢
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99.9¢
$129.75
$380.33
$379.95
+$250.2
(+192.8%)
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
No 68¢
558.3 份
分享
79.8¢
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68¢
$445.67
$558.29
$379.63
−$66.04
(-14.8%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
No 97.9¢
380.9 份
分享
58.8¢
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97.9¢
$223.98
$380.86
$372.67
+$148.69
(+66.4%)
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
No 82¢
444.2 份
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72.2¢
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82¢
$320.91
$444.24
$364.28
+$43.37
(+13.5%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
No 98.4¢
368.7 份
分享
63¢
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98.4¢
$232.31
$368.74
$362.66
+$130.35
(+56.1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
No 75.5¢
479.2 份
分享
67.2¢
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75.5¢
$321.82
$479.2
$361.8
+$39.98
(+12.4%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
No 97.3¢
371.6 份
分享
82¢
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97.3¢
$304.7
$371.59
$361.37
+$56.67
(+18.6%)
Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?
No 97.1¢
356.2 份
分享
93¢
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97.1¢
$331.23
$356.16
$345.83
+$14.6
(+4.4%)
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?
Yes 98.5¢
341.6 份
分享
93¢
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98.5¢
$317.7
$341.61
$336.31
+$18.62
(+5.9%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?
No 41¢
817.2 份
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48.5¢
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41¢
$396.69
$817.23
$335.06
−$61.63
(-15.5%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
No 54.5¢
612.8 份
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51.5¢
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54.5¢
$315.69
$612.82
$333.99
+$18.3
(+5.8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No 100.0¢
330.6 份
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92¢
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100.0¢
$304.15
$330.6
$330.44
+$26.28
(+8.6%)
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