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Tenebrus7
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2024年6月 加入
曬單卡片
日曆
複製地址
分享個人資料
Polymarket
在 Polymarket 查看
總收益
$264,229.48
1天
$2.25萬
7天
$1.54萬
30天
$3.26萬
90天
$5.09萬
總交易量
$8455.29萬
預測次數
5,141
持倉價值
$19.76萬
盈虧走勢
歷史盈虧走勢
1天
1周
1月
今年
全部
交易
+$17.98萬
LP 獎勵
+$7.67萬
Maker 返利
+$1.09萬
持倉獎勵
+$641.30
Taker 返利
+$187.33
費用
−$4,005.72
排名概覽
綜合
#861
共 330.2萬 個錢包
交易量
#257
共 330.2萬 個錢包
利潤
#1,224
共 330.2萬 個錢包
LP 獎勵
#76
共 18.9萬 個獲獎地址
Maker 返利
#767
共 16.1萬 個獲獎地址
Taker 返利
#6,828
共 7.2萬 個獲獎地址
持倉獎勵
#759
共 35.2萬 個獲獎地址
已付費用
#7,304
共 153.5萬 個付費地址
持倉
活動
評論
當前
已平倉
市場
平均 → 當前
成交額
獲勝可得
價值
分享
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
No 100.0¢
3.6萬 份
分享
95.8¢
→
100.0¢
$3.4萬
$3.55萬
$3.55萬
+$1,463.06
(+4.3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No 98.0¢
1.8萬 份
分享
74.7¢
→
98.0¢
$1.35萬
$1.81萬
$1.77萬
+$4,219.97
(+31.2%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
Yes 96.7¢
1.3萬 份
分享
90.5¢
→
96.7¢
$1.16萬
$1.28萬
$1.24萬
+$795.11
(+6.8%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Yes 100.0¢
9,506.3 份
分享
90.0¢
→
100.0¢
$8,554.46
$9,506.3
$9,501.55
+$947.09
(+11.1%)
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
No 69.5¢
1.3萬 份
分享
78.4¢
→
69.5¢
$1.05萬
$1.34萬
$9,322.47
−$1,192.79
(-11.3%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
No 77.5¢
1萬 份
分享
72.3¢
→
77.5¢
$7,323
$1.01萬
$7,852.09
+$529.09
(+7.2%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
Yes 93.5¢
5,738.2 份
分享
86.7¢
→
93.5¢
$4,977.71
$5,738.23
$5,365.24
+$387.53
(+7.8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 97.5¢
4,997.1 份
分享
96.6¢
→
97.5¢
$4,826.14
$4,997.06
$4,869.63
+$43.49
(+0.9%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
No 21.5¢
2萬 份
分享
26.3¢
→
21.5¢
$5,255.26
$2萬
$4,300
−$955.26
(-18.2%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
Yes 89¢
4,436.9 份
分享
82.1¢
→
89¢
$3,642.06
$4,436.86
$3,948.8
+$306.74
(+8.4%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
No 60.5¢
5,750.9 份
分享
58.6¢
→
60.5¢
$3,367.18
$5,750.9
$3,479.29
+$112.11
(+3.3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 86.5¢
4,000 份
分享
81.7¢
→
86.5¢
$3,267.78
$3,999.98
$3,459.99
+$192.2
(+5.9%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
No 60.8¢
5,259.5 份
分享
57.1¢
→
60.8¢
$3,004.35
$5,259.46
$3,197.75
+$193.41
(+6.4%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes 51.5¢
6,176.9 份
分享
57.1¢
→
51.5¢
$3,525.02
$6,176.86
$3,181.08
−$343.94
(-9.8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
No 91.8¢
3,363.1 份
分享
92.8¢
→
91.8¢
$3,121.62
$3,363.12
$3,087.35
−$34.28
(-1.1%)
Israeli Knesset election annulled?
No 97.0¢
3,005 份
分享
96.0¢
→
97.0¢
$2,885.12
$3,005.01
$2,913.36
+$28.24
(+1.0%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
No 94¢
2,545.1 份
分享
92.8¢
→
94¢
$2,361.52
$2,545.14
$2,392.43
+$30.91
(+1.3%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
No 81.5¢
2,899.5 份
分享
77.6¢
→
81.5¢
$2,250.61
$2,899.46
$2,363.06
+$112.45
(+5.0%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
No 58.5¢
3,770 份
分享
57.0¢
→
58.5¢
$2,148.27
$3,769.97
$2,205.43
+$57.16
(+2.7%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?
Yes 99.5¢
2,000 份
分享
42.5¢
→
99.5¢
$850
$2,000
$1,989
+$1,139
(+134.0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No 96.2¢
2,044.2 份
分享
94.4¢
→
96.2¢
$1,929.32
$2,044.16
$1,965.46
+$36.13
(+1.9%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No 91.1¢
1,915.4 份
分享
91.8¢
→
91.1¢
$1,759.38
$1,915.45
$1,745.93
−$13.45
(-0.8%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Yes 57.5¢
2,474 份
分享
57.1¢
→
57.5¢
$1,413.42
$2,473.99
$1,422.55
+$9.13
(+0.6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 31.1¢
4,403.1 份
分享
27.2¢
→
31.1¢
$1,197.64
$4,403.08
$1,369.36
+$171.72
(+14.3%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
No 95.2¢
1,421.3 份
分享
78.8¢
→
95.2¢
$1,119.28
$1,421.28
$1,353.06
+$233.78
(+20.9%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes 89.5¢
1,500 份
分享
90.2¢
→
89.5¢
$1,353
$1,500
$1,341.75
−$11.25
(-0.8%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
No 95.5¢
1,385.3 份
分享
87.2¢
→
95.5¢
$1,208.17
$1,385.31
$1,323.67
+$115.5
(+9.6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Yes 96.2¢
1,232.4 份
分享
93.9¢
→
96.2¢
$1,157.15
$1,232.42
$1,184.97
+$27.83
(+2.4%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
No 64.5¢
1,768.2 份
分享
65.4¢
→
64.5¢
$1,156.43
$1,768.2
$1,140.49
−$15.95
(-1.4%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No 97.2¢
1,166.4 份
分享
88.8¢
→
97.2¢
$1,035.17
$1,166.37
$1,133.13
+$97.96
(+9.5%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes 57.5¢
1,967.2 份
分享
50.1¢
→
57.5¢
$985.85
$1,967.24
$1,131.17
+$145.31
(+14.7%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
No 96.4¢
1,132.8 份
分享
93.9¢
→
96.4¢
$1,063.49
$1,132.79
$1,092.01
+$28.52
(+2.7%)
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes 70.5¢
1,519.1 份
分享
66.3¢
→
70.5¢
$1,007.35
$1,519.1
$1,070.96
+$63.62
(+6.3%)
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No 70.3¢
1,500 份
分享
68.0¢
→
70.3¢
$1,019.62
$1,500
$1,054.5
+$34.88
(+3.4%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
No 96¢
1,085.9 份
分享
96.2¢
→
96¢
$1,044.59
$1,085.86
$1,042.42
−$2.17
(-0.2%)
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
No 100.0¢
1,000 份
分享
87.8¢
→
100.0¢
$878.01
$1,000.01
$999.51
+$121.5
(+13.8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
No 100.0¢
1,000 份
分享
99.5¢
→
100.0¢
$995
$1,000
$999.5
+$4.5
(+0.5%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
No 99.9¢
1,000 份
分享
43¢
→
99.9¢
$430
$1,000
$999
+$569
(+132.3%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No 87.5¢
1,127.9 份
分享
89.0¢
→
87.5¢
$1,003.56
$1,127.94
$986.95
−$16.61
(-1.7%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
No 68.9¢
1,408.9 份
分享
72.7¢
→
68.9¢
$1,024.04
$1,408.86
$970.7
−$53.34
(-5.2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
Yes 83¢
1,137 份
分享
81.8¢
→
83¢
$930.49
$1,137.01
$943.72
+$13.22
(+1.4%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
No 36.5¢
2,497 份
分享
32.7¢
→
36.5¢
$817.45
$2,496.97
$911.39
+$93.94
(+11.5%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
No 89.5¢
1,000 份
分享
85.5¢
→
89.5¢
$854.99
$999.99
$894.99
+$40
(+4.7%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 89.0¢
1,000 份
分享
85.0¢
→
89.0¢
$849.74
$999.99
$890.49
+$40.75
(+4.8%)
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
No 61.5¢
1,437.4 份
分享
66.7¢
→
61.5¢
$958.29
$1,437.38
$883.99
−$74.3
(-7.8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
No 88¢
1,000 份
分享
83.5¢
→
88¢
$835
$1,000
$880
+$45
(+5.4%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
No 96.4¢
890.2 份
分享
86.6¢
→
96.4¢
$770.91
$890.24
$858.19
+$87.28
(+11.3%)
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
No 67.5¢
1,253.1 份
分享
72.2¢
→
67.5¢
$905.27
$1,253.05
$845.81
−$59.46
(-6.6%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Yes 47¢
1,780.6 份
分享
49.3¢
→
47¢
$877.27
$1,780.57
$836.87
−$40.4
(-4.6%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
No 89¢
900 份
分享
85.7¢
→
89¢
$770.99
$899.99
$800.99
+$30
(+3.9%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes 35.5¢
2,158.6 份
分享
55.3¢
→
35.5¢
$1,192.93
$2,158.55
$766.29
−$426.64
(-35.8%)
US recession by end of 2026?
No 94.5¢
800 份
分享
94¢
→
94.5¢
$752
$800
$756
+$4
(+0.5%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
No 86¢
839.4 份
分享
33.9¢
→
86¢
$284.62
$839.39
$721.88
+$437.26
(+153.6%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes 98.4¢
700 份
分享
96.2¢
→
98.4¢
$673.7
$700
$688.45
+$14.75
(+2.2%)
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire not hold through 2027?
Yes 97.3¢
631.6 份
分享
98.0¢
→
97.3¢
$619.33
$631.63
$614.58
−$4.76
(-0.8%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?
No 58.5¢
991 份
分享
61.1¢
→
58.5¢
$605.84
$990.98
$579.72
−$26.11
(-4.3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
No 47.5¢
1,217.8 份
分享
46.2¢
→
47.5¢
$563.02
$1,217.83
$578.47
+$15.45
(+2.7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 15.2¢
3,725.9 份
分享
41.9¢
→
15.2¢
$1,561.29
$3,725.91
$564.48
−$996.82
(-63.8%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
No 92.5¢
600 份
分享
80¢
→
92.5¢
$480
$600
$555
+$75
(+15.6%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
Yes 99.7¢
532 份
分享
95.5¢
→
99.7¢
$508.06
$531.98
$530.12
+$22.06
(+4.3%)
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
Yes 98.8¢
533.1 份
分享
61.6¢
→
98.8¢
$328.17
$533.12
$526.46
+$198.29
(+60.4%)
Kash Patel out by December 31?
No 81.5¢
635.8 份
分享
74¢
→
81.5¢
$470.5
$635.81
$518.19
+$47.69
(+10.1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Yes 59¢
871 份
分享
54.3¢
→
59¢
$473.26
$871.04
$513.91
+$40.65
(+8.6%)
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
No 95.3¢
536.4 份
分享
72.3¢
→
95.3¢
$388.08
$536.41
$511.47
+$123.39
(+31.8%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?
No 91.5¢
556.5 份
分享
89.8¢
→
91.5¢
$499.72
$556.5
$509.2
+$9.48
(+1.9%)
Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
No 100.0¢
500 份
分享
99¢
→
100.0¢
$495
$500
$499.75
+$4.75
(+1.0%)
GTA VI released by November 30?
Yes 98.7¢
499.7 份
分享
97.4¢
→
98.7¢
$486.67
$499.66
$493.17
+$6.5
(+1.3%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
Yes 98.6¢
500 份
分享
92.7¢
→
98.6¢
$463.43
$500
$493
+$29.57
(+6.4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
No 98.0¢
500 份
分享
95.5¢
→
98.0¢
$477.51
$500.01
$489.76
+$12.25
(+2.6%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?
No 92.3¢
500 份
分享
92¢
→
92.3¢
$460
$500
$461.75
+$1.75
(+0.4%)
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Yes 23¢
2,000 份
分享
27¢
→
23¢
$540
$1,999.99
$460
−$80
(-14.8%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No 44.0¢
1,000 份
分享
44.3¢
→
44.0¢
$443.5
$999.99
$440.5
−$3
(-0.7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
No 98.9¢
444 份
分享
97.1¢
→
98.9¢
$431.12
$444
$439.12
+$7.99
(+1.9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes 43.5¢
1,000 份
分享
49¢
→
43.5¢
$490
$1,000
$435
−$55
(-11.2%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
No 84.3¢
502.4 份
分享
71.7¢
→
84.3¢
$360.13
$502.39
$423.26
+$63.13
(+17.5%)
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
Yes 84.5¢
500 份
分享
84.1¢
→
84.5¢
$420.5
$500
$422.75
+$2.25
(+0.5%)
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026?
No 88.5¢
449.3 份
分享
90.2¢
→
88.5¢
$405.29
$449.25
$397.59
−$7.7
(-1.9%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
No 78¢
500 份
分享
75.3¢
→
78¢
$376.68
$500.01
$390.01
+$13.33
(+3.5%)
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
No 83.5¢
465.3 份
分享
86¢
→
83.5¢
$400.15
$465.29
$388.52
−$11.63
(-2.9%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?
No 91.8¢
416.7 份
分享
77¢
→
91.8¢
$320.87
$416.72
$382.55
+$61.67
(+19.2%)
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
No 74¢
503.9 份
分享
75.0¢
→
74¢
$377.88
$503.94
$372.92
−$4.96
(-1.3%)
Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026?
Yes 85¢
420.8 份
分享
73.5¢
→
85¢
$309.25
$420.75
$357.64
+$48.39
(+15.6%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
No 49¢
685.4 份
分享
50.3¢
→
49¢
$344.79
$685.35
$335.82
−$8.96
(-2.6%)
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 2027?
No 97.5¢
344.4 份
分享
97.7¢
→
97.5¢
$336.32
$344.4
$335.62
−$0.7
(-0.2%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes 67¢
500 份
分享
67¢
→
67¢
$334.99
$499.99
$334.99
+$0
(+0.0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 8.8¢
3,522.9 份
分享
11.1¢
→
8.8¢
$392.27
$3,522.86
$308.25
−$84.02
(-21.4%)
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
No 32¢
959.2 份
分享
35.5¢
→
32¢
$340.5
$959.16
$306.93
−$33.57
(-9.9%)
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
No 95.2¢
314.6 份
分享
84.6¢
→
95.2¢
$266.22
$314.59
$299.33
+$33.11
(+12.4%)
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
No 65.5¢
435.9 份
分享
65¢
→
65.5¢
$283.3
$435.85
$285.48
+$2.18
(+0.8%)
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
No 91.5¢
311 份
分享
92¢
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91.5¢
$286.13
$311.01
$284.57
−$1.56
(-0.5%)
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026?
No 57.0¢
380.3 份
分享
79.5¢
→
57.0¢
$302.32
$380.28
$216.76
−$85.56
(-28.3%)
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
No 100.0¢
200 份
分享
98.2¢
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100.0¢
$196.4
$200
$199.9
+$3.5
(+1.8%)
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 94.5¢
208.7 份
分享
93.1¢
→
94.5¢
$194.32
$208.67
$197.3
+$2.97
(+1.5%)
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026?
No 34¢
572 份
分享
69.0¢
→
34¢
$394.66
$571.97
$194.47
−$200.19
(-50.7%)
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
No 96.0¢
200.2 份
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94.4¢
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96.0¢
$188.95
$200.16
$192.05
+$3.1
(+1.6%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No 56.5¢
335.1 份
分享
73.7¢
→
56.5¢
$246.8
$335.1
$189.33
−$57.47
(-23.3%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Yes 37.5¢
500 份
分享
36.3¢
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37.5¢
$181.66
$499.99
$187.5
+$5.83
(+3.2%)
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?
No 65¢
280 份
分享
85¢
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65¢
$238
$280
$182
−$56
(-23.5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
Yes 89¢
200 份
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90.0¢
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89¢
$180
$200
$178
−$2
(-1.1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 31.3¢
561.9 份
分享
38.4¢
→
31.3¢
$215.76
$561.87
$175.58
−$40.17
(-18.6%)
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