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2024年6月 加入
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Polymarket
在 Polymarket 查看
总收益
$263,779.84
1天
$3.11万
7天
$1.5万
30天
$3.22万
90天
$5.05万
总成交量
$8454.49万
预测次数
5,141
持仓价值
$22.17万
盈亏走势
历史盈亏走势
1天
1周
1月
今年
全部
交易
+$17.93万
LP 奖励
+$7.67万
Maker 返利
+$1.09万
持仓奖励
+$641.30
Taker 返利
+$187.33
费用
−$4,005.72
排名概览
综合
#861
共 330.2万 个钱包
成交量
#257
共 330.2万 个钱包
利润
#1,224
共 330.2万 个钱包
LP 奖励
#76
共 18.9万 个获奖地址
Maker 返利
#767
共 16.1万 个获奖地址
Taker 返利
#6,828
共 7.2万 个获奖地址
持仓奖励
#759
共 35.2万 个获奖地址
已付费用
#7,304
共 153.5万 个付费地址
持仓
活动
评论
当前
已平仓
市场
平均 → 当前
成交额
获胜可得
价值
分享
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
No 100.0¢
3.6万 份
分享
95.8¢
→
100.0¢
$3.4万
$3.55万
$3.55万
+$1,463.06
(+4.3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No 97.1¢
1.8万 份
分享
74.7¢
→
97.1¢
$1.35万
$1.81万
$1.76万
+$4,048.02
(+29.9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 100¢
1.6万 份
分享
97.6¢
→
100¢
$1.56万
$1.6万
赢
$1.6万
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?
Yes 95¢
1.2万 份
分享
90.2¢
→
95¢
$1.11万
$1.23万
$1.17万
+$593.19
(+5.3%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Yes 100.0¢
9,506.3 份
分享
90.0¢
→
100.0¢
$8,554.46
$9,506.3
$9,501.55
+$947.09
(+11.1%)
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
No 69.5¢
1.3万 份
分享
78.4¢
→
69.5¢
$1.05万
$1.34万
$9,322.47
−$1,192.79
(-11.3%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
No 78.5¢
1万 份
分享
72.3¢
→
78.5¢
$7,323
$1.01万
$7,953.41
+$630.41
(+8.6%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
Yes 93.5¢
7,238.2 份
分享
86.1¢
→
93.5¢
$6,235.73
$7,238.25
$6,767.76
+$532.03
(+8.5%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
Yes 86.5¢
6,190.6 份
分享
82.1¢
→
86.5¢
$5,081.62
$6,190.57
$5,354.84
+$273.22
(+5.4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
No 22.5¢
2.3万 份
分享
26.3¢
→
22.5¢
$6,043.55
$2.3万
$5,175
−$868.55
(-14.4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 97.4¢
4,997.1 份
分享
96.6¢
→
97.4¢
$4,826.14
$4,997.06
$4,867.13
+$40.99
(+0.8%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
No 64.5¢
5,750.9 份
分享
58.6¢
→
64.5¢
$3,367.18
$5,750.9
$3,709.33
+$342.15
(+10.2%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
No 60.5¢
5,759.5 份
分享
57.1¢
→
60.5¢
$3,289.96
$5,759.46
$3,484.47
+$194.51
(+5.9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 86.5¢
4,000 份
分享
81.7¢
→
86.5¢
$3,267.78
$3,999.98
$3,459.99
+$192.2
(+5.9%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes 50¢
6,176.9 份
分享
57.1¢
→
50¢
$3,525.02
$6,176.86
$3,088.43
−$436.59
(-12.4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
No 91.8¢
3,363.1 份
分享
92.8¢
→
91.8¢
$3,121.62
$3,363.12
$3,085.67
−$35.96
(-1.2%)
Israeli Knesset election annulled?
No 96.9¢
3,005 份
分享
96.0¢
→
96.9¢
$2,885.12
$3,005.01
$2,910.35
+$25.24
(+0.9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 100.0¢
2,500 份
分享
95¢
→
100.0¢
$2,375
$2,500
$2,498.75
+$123.75
(+5.2%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
No 93.5¢
2,545.1 份
分享
92.8¢
→
93.5¢
$2,361.52
$2,545.14
$2,379.71
+$18.19
(+0.8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
No 78.5¢
3,000 份
分享
76.3¢
→
78.5¢
$2,290
$3,000.01
$2,355
+$65
(+2.8%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
No 77.5¢
2,899.5 份
分享
77.6¢
→
77.5¢
$2,250.61
$2,899.46
$2,247.08
−$3.53
(-0.2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?
Yes 98.9¢
2,000 份
分享
42.5¢
→
98.9¢
$850
$2,000
$1,977
+$1,127
(+132.6%)
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No 96.3¢
2,044.2 份
分享
94.4¢
→
96.3¢
$1,929.32
$2,044.16
$1,967.5
+$38.18
(+2.0%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
No 58.5¢
3,270 份
分享
56.8¢
→
58.5¢
$1,858.28
$3,269.98
$1,912.94
+$54.66
(+2.9%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No 91¢
1,915.4 份
分享
91.8¢
→
91¢
$1,759.38
$1,915.45
$1,743.06
−$16.32
(-0.9%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
No 100¢
1,500 份
分享
79.5¢
→
100¢
$1,192.5
$1,500.02
赢
$1,500.02
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 28.0¢
5,000 份
分享
27.2¢
→
28.0¢
$1,360
$5,000
$1,397.5
+$37.5
(+2.8%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes 90.6¢
1,500 份
分享
90.2¢
→
90.6¢
$1,353
$1,500
$1,359
+$6
(+0.4%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
No 95.3¢
1,421.3 份
分享
78.8¢
→
95.3¢
$1,119.28
$1,421.28
$1,353.77
+$234.49
(+21.0%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
No 95.5¢
1,385.3 份
分享
87.2¢
→
95.5¢
$1,208.17
$1,385.31
$1,323.67
+$115.5
(+9.6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Yes 93.7¢
1,232.4 份
分享
93.9¢
→
93.7¢
$1,157.15
$1,232.42
$1,154.16
−$2.98
(-0.3%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
No 64.5¢
1,768.2 份
分享
65.4¢
→
64.5¢
$1,156.43
$1,768.2
$1,140.49
−$15.95
(-1.4%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No 97.2¢
1,166.4 份
分享
88.8¢
→
97.2¢
$1,035.17
$1,166.37
$1,133.13
+$97.96
(+9.5%)
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes 70.5¢
1,600 份
分享
66.3¢
→
70.5¢
$1,061
$1,600.01
$1,128.01
+$67
(+6.3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes 57.0¢
1,967.2 份
分享
50.1¢
→
57.0¢
$985.85
$1,967.24
$1,121.33
+$135.48
(+13.7%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
No 36.5¢
2,997 份
分享
32.7¢
→
36.5¢
$981.14
$2,996.97
$1,093.89
+$112.75
(+11.5%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
No 95.5¢
1,132.8 份
分享
93.9¢
→
95.5¢
$1,063.49
$1,132.79
$1,081.81
+$18.32
(+1.7%)
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No 70.5¢
1,500 份
分享
68.0¢
→
70.5¢
$1,019.62
$1,500
$1,056.75
+$37.13
(+3.6%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
No 96¢
1,085.9 份
分享
96.2¢
→
96¢
$1,044.59
$1,085.86
$1,042.42
−$2.17
(-0.2%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
No 72.3¢
1,408.9 份
分享
72.7¢
→
72.3¢
$1,024.04
$1,408.86
$1,018.61
−$5.43
(-0.5%)
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
No 100.0¢
1,000 份
分享
87.8¢
→
100.0¢
$878.01
$1,000.01
$999.51
+$121.5
(+13.8%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
No 100.0¢
1,000 份
分享
99.5¢
→
100.0¢
$995
$1,000
$999.5
+$4.5
(+0.5%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?
No 99.9¢
1,000 份
分享
43¢
→
99.9¢
$430
$1,000
$999
+$569
(+132.3%)
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No 88¢
1,127.9 份
分享
89.0¢
→
88¢
$1,003.56
$1,127.94
$992.59
−$10.97
(-1.1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
Yes 86.5¢
1,137 份
分享
81.8¢
→
86.5¢
$930.49
$1,137.01
$983.51
+$53.02
(+5.7%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
No 89.5¢
1,000 份
分享
85.5¢
→
89.5¢
$854.99
$999.99
$894.99
+$40
(+4.7%)
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
No 62¢
1,437.4 份
分享
66.7¢
→
62¢
$958.29
$1,437.38
$891.17
−$67.12
(-7.0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 88.8¢
1,000 份
分享
85.0¢
→
88.8¢
$849.74
$999.99
$888.49
+$38.75
(+4.6%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
No 87.5¢
1,000 份
分享
83.5¢
→
87.5¢
$835
$1,000
$875
+$40
(+4.8%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
No 96.4¢
890.2 份
分享
86.6¢
→
96.4¢
$770.91
$890.24
$857.74
+$86.84
(+11.3%)
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
No 67.5¢
1,253.1 份
分享
72.2¢
→
67.5¢
$905.27
$1,253.05
$845.81
−$59.46
(-6.6%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
No 89¢
900 份
分享
85.7¢
→
89¢
$770.99
$899.99
$800.99
+$30
(+3.9%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Yes 44¢
1,780.6 份
分享
49.3¢
→
44¢
$877.27
$1,780.57
$783.45
−$93.81
(-10.7%)
US recession by end of 2026?
No 94.5¢
800 份
分享
94¢
→
94.5¢
$752
$800
$756
+$4
(+0.5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes 33.5¢
2,158.6 份
分享
55.3¢
→
33.5¢
$1,192.93
$2,158.55
$723.11
−$469.81
(-39.4%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
No 86¢
839.4 份
分享
33.9¢
→
86¢
$284.62
$839.39
$721.88
+$437.26
(+153.6%)
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire not hold through 2027?
Yes 98.8¢
631.6 份
分享
98.0¢
→
98.8¢
$619.33
$631.63
$623.73
+$4.4
(+0.7%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?
No 58.5¢
991 份
分享
61.1¢
→
58.5¢
$605.84
$990.98
$579.72
−$26.11
(-4.3%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
No 47¢
1,217.8 份
分享
46.2¢
→
47¢
$563.02
$1,217.83
$572.38
+$9.36
(+1.7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 15.3¢
3,725.9 份
分享
41.9¢
→
15.3¢
$1,561.29
$3,725.91
$571.93
−$989.36
(-63.4%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
No 92.5¢
600 份
分享
80¢
→
92.5¢
$480
$600
$555
+$75
(+15.6%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
Yes 99.7¢
532 份
分享
95.5¢
→
99.7¢
$508.06
$531.98
$530.39
+$22.33
(+4.4%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
No 47¢
1,126.5 份
分享
50.3¢
→
47¢
$566.71
$1,126.48
$529.45
−$37.26
(-6.6%)
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
Yes 98.7¢
533.1 份
分享
61.6¢
→
98.7¢
$328.17
$533.12
$526.19
+$198.02
(+60.3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31?
No 81¢
635.8 份
分享
74¢
→
81¢
$470.5
$635.81
$515.01
+$44.51
(+9.5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?
No 92¢
556.5 份
分享
89.8¢
→
92¢
$499.72
$556.5
$511.98
+$12.26
(+2.5%)
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
No 95¢
536.4 份
分享
72.3¢
→
95¢
$388.08
$536.41
$509.59
+$121.51
(+31.3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
Yes 58.0¢
871 份
分享
54.3¢
→
58.0¢
$473.26
$871.04
$505.2
+$31.94
(+6.7%)
Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
No 100.0¢
500 份
分享
99¢
→
100.0¢
$495
$500
$499.75
+$4.75
(+1.0%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Yes 55.0¢
907.2 份
分享
57.8¢
→
55.0¢
$524.7
$907.2
$498.96
−$25.74
(-4.9%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes 98.9¢
500 份
分享
95.3¢
→
98.9¢
$476.5
$500
$494.5
+$18
(+3.8%)
GTA VI released by November 30?
Yes 98.6¢
499.7 份
分享
97.4¢
→
98.6¢
$486.67
$499.66
$492.67
+$6
(+1.2%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
Yes 98¢
500 份
分享
92.7¢
→
98¢
$463.43
$500
$490
+$26.57
(+5.7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
No 98.0¢
500 份
分享
95.5¢
→
98.0¢
$477.51
$500.01
$489.76
+$12.25
(+2.6%)
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Yes 24¢
2,000 份
分享
27¢
→
24¢
$540
$1,999.99
$480
−$60
(-11.1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?
No 92.0¢
500 份
分享
92¢
→
92.0¢
$460
$500
$460.25
+$0.25
(+0.1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
No 98.9¢
444 份
分享
97.1¢
→
98.9¢
$431.12
$444
$438.89
+$7.77
(+1.8%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
No 84.8¢
502.4 份
分享
71.7¢
→
84.8¢
$360.13
$502.39
$426.02
+$65.89
(+18.3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes 42.5¢
1,000 份
分享
49¢
→
42.5¢
$490
$1,000
$425
−$65
(-13.3%)
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026?
No 88.5¢
449.3 份
分享
90.2¢
→
88.5¢
$405.29
$449.25
$397.59
−$7.7
(-1.9%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
No 78.5¢
500 份
分享
75.3¢
→
78.5¢
$376.68
$500.01
$392.51
+$15.83
(+4.2%)
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
No 83.5¢
465.3 份
分享
86¢
→
83.5¢
$400.15
$465.29
$388.52
−$11.63
(-2.9%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?
No 91.9¢
416.7 份
分享
77¢
→
91.9¢
$320.87
$416.72
$382.97
+$62.09
(+19.4%)
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
No 74.5¢
503.9 份
分享
75.0¢
→
74.5¢
$377.88
$503.94
$375.44
−$2.44
(-0.6%)
Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026?
Yes 84.5¢
420.8 份
分享
73.5¢
→
84.5¢
$309.25
$420.75
$355.53
+$46.28
(+15.0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes 69¢
500 份
分享
67¢
→
69¢
$334.99
$499.99
$344.99
+$10
(+3.0%)
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 2027?
No 98.5¢
344.4 份
分享
97.7¢
→
98.5¢
$336.32
$344.4
$339.06
+$2.74
(+0.8%)
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
Yes 83.3¢
400 份
分享
82.0¢
→
83.3¢
$328
$400.01
$333.2
+$5.2
(+1.6%)
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
No 34.5¢
959.2 份
分享
35.5¢
→
34.5¢
$340.5
$959.16
$330.91
−$9.59
(-2.8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 8.5¢
3,522.9 份
分享
11.1¢
→
8.5¢
$392.27
$3,522.86
$299.44
−$92.83
(-23.7%)
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
No 95.2¢
314.6 份
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84.6¢
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95.2¢
$266.22
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$299.33
+$33.11
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Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
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435.9 份
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66.5¢
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Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
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311 份
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92¢
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91.5¢
$286.13
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Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026?
No 58.5¢
380.3 份
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79.5¢
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58.5¢
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Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
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200 份
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100.0¢
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Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026?
No 34.5¢
572 份
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69.0¢
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34.5¢
$394.66
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$197.33
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Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 94.5¢
208.7 份
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94.5¢
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Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?
No 69¢
280 份
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85¢
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$193.2
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Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
No 96.4¢
200.2 份
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96.4¢
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$192.95
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Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No 55.0¢
335.1 份
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73.7¢
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55.0¢
$246.8
$335.1
$184.3
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