February 6
$163,589 Vol.
No
December 31, 2025
$52,056 Vol.
No
February 14, 2026
$353,363 Vol.
No
February 28, 2026
$1,039,265 Vol.
No
March 15, 2026
No
March 31, 2026
No
April 30, 2026
$1,337,005 Vol.
No
May 31, 2026
$600,103 Vol.
No
June 12, 2026
$31,585 Vol.
Yes
June 19, 2026
$5,892 Vol.
Yes
June 30, 2026
$795,270 Vol.
Yes
September 30, 2026
$108,532 Vol.
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly…