October 31
$441 Vol.
98%
September 30
$3,580 Vol.
92%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
$2,226 Vol.
90%
Chopsticks catch Starship?
$2,272 Vol.
56%
Successful splash down?
$319 Vol.
42%
August 31
$6,991 Vol.
33%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$963 Vol.
3%
Rules
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have…