Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)55%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)8.5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)3.3%
No price data yet
$66,362 Vol.Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$30,439 Vol.
55%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$23,695 Vol.
36%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,052 Vol.
8%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,175 Vol.
3%
Rules
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation…