Israel x Iran · Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$64,447 Vol.

Yes

East–West Pipeline

$38,742 Vol.

Yes

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$96,891 Vol.

No

Ruwais Refinery

$48,059 Vol.

No

Burj Khalifa

$14,024 Vol.

No

Ghawar Field

$20,784 Vol.

No

Safaniya Field

$17,945 Vol.

No

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$46,694 Vol.

No

Al Zour Refinery

$31,892 Vol.

No

Leviathan Field

$11,835 Vol.

No

Khurais Field

$18,874 Vol.

No

Ras Tanura

$45,825 Vol.

No

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$52,951 Vol.

No

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$48,171 Vol.

No

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes…