OpenAI
$19,310 Vol.
30%
$16,741 Vol.
22%
Moonshot
$4,737 Vol.
17%
Alibaba
$3,202 Vol.
13%
xAI
$8,291 Vol.
13%
Meta
$12,239 Vol.
12%
ByteDance
$2,415 Vol.
10%
Z.ai
$2,479 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$2,956 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$2,727 Vol.
8%
Microsoft
$3,469 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$1,891 Vol.
7%
Meituan
$2,290 Vol.
6%
Mistral
$8,218 Vol.
4%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the…