Iowa
$1,086 Vol.
85%
Ohio (Special)
$837 Vol.
81%
Michigan
$569 Vol.
77%
Alaska
$394 Vol.
75%
Texas
$1,977 Vol.
71%
Maine
$228 Vol.
65%
New Hampshire
$1,141 Vol.
55%
Nebraska
$1,929 Vol.
49%
Florida (Special)
$1,040 Vol.
33%
Georgia
$368 Vol.
31%
North Carolina
$1,848 Vol.
28%
Minnesota
$5,867 Vol.
25%
New Mexico
$1,928 Vol.
11%
Montana
$1,385 Vol.
6%
Virginia
$1,122 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$1,797 Vol.
3%
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top…