Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by December 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to…