Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.