Total earnings
$269,032.05
1D
$2.2K
7D
$152.87
30D
$20.3K
90D
$123.9K
Total volume
$28.55M
Predictions
3,180
Positions value
$240.5K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade+$252.5K
LP+$15.8K
Maker+$1.2K
Yield+$661.31
Referral+$252.52
Taker+$37.98
Fees−$2.0K

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No 67.3¢39.5K shares
67.3¢→73.5¢
$26.6K
$39.5K
$29.0K
+$2.4K (+9.2%)

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
No 93.3¢26.1K shares
93.3¢→95.7¢
$24.4K
$26.1K
$25.0K
+$610.26 (+2.5%)

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No 90.4¢25.5K shares
90.4¢→90.5¢
$23.0K
$25.5K
$23.0K
+$35.02 (+0.2%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 81.0¢25.2K shares
81.0¢→78.5¢
$20.4K
$25.2K
$19.8K
−$605.68 (-3.0%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No 46.9¢30.0K shares
46.9¢→44.5¢
$14.0K
$30.0K
$13.3K
−$711.17 (-5.1%)

Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
No 73.6¢10.8K shares
73.6¢→91.5¢
$7.9K
$10.8K
$9.9K
+$1.9K (+24.3%)

Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes 67.2¢12.6K shares
67.2¢→70.5¢
$8.5K
$12.6K
$8.9K
+$411.81 (+4.9%)

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
No 62.5¢11.8K shares
62.5¢→69.5¢
$7.4K
$11.8K
$8.2K
+$823.39 (+11.1%)

US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No 55.5¢10.8K shares
55.5¢→67.5¢
$6.0K
$10.8K
$7.3K
+$1.3K (+21.5%)

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Yes 66.7¢11.2K shares
66.7¢→56.5¢
$7.5K
$11.2K
$6.4K
−$1.2K (-15.3%)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
No 47.1¢15.2K shares
47.1¢→41.5¢
$7.2K
$15.2K
$6.3K
−$855.04 (-11.9%)

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
No 91.3¢6.7K shares
91.3¢→79.8¢
$6.1K
$6.7K
$5.4K
−$764.94 (-12.5%)

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
No 92.4¢5.5K shares
92.4¢→93.8¢
$5.1K
$5.5K
$5.2K
+$74.26 (+1.5%)

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Yes 48.2¢5.9K shares
48.2¢→61¢
$2.8K
$5.9K
$3.6K
+$754.88 (+26.6%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
No 77.3¢4.2K shares
77.3¢→82¢
$3.3K
$4.2K
$3.5K
+$200.09 (+6.1%)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
Yes 13.0¢14.4K shares
13.0¢→21.5¢
$1.9K
$14.4K
$3.1K
+$1.2K (+65.5%)

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No 68.0¢4.1K shares
68.0¢→65.5¢
$2.8K
$4.1K
$2.7K
−$102.99 (-3.7%)

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Yes 29.3¢8.3K shares
29.3¢→30.5¢
$2.4K
$8.3K
$2.5K
+$101.59 (+4.2%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 72.4¢3.0K shares
72.4¢→78.1¢
$2.2K
$3.0K
$2.3K
+$169.86 (+7.9%)

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
No 56.1¢3.6K shares
56.1¢→58.5¢
$2.0K
$3.6K
$2.1K
+$86.30 (+4.2%)

Iran leadership change by July 31?
No 94¢2.2K shares
94¢→98.0¢
$2.0K
$2.2K
$2.1K
+$87.20 (+4.3%)
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
No 87.2¢2.3K shares
87.2¢→91¢
$2.0K
$2.3K
$2.1K
+$86.17 (+4.4%)

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Yes 74.1¢2.3K shares
74.1¢→85.5¢
$1.7K
$2.3K
$2.0K
+$267.90 (+15.5%)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 28.8¢8.2K shares
28.8¢→23.6¢
$2.4K
$8.2K
$1.9K
−$421.41 (-17.9%)

Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
No 65.6¢2.4K shares
65.6¢→73¢
$1.6K
$2.4K
$1.7K
+$174.82 (+11.2%)

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Yes 20.4¢25.2K shares
20.4¢→6.5¢
$5.2K
$25.2K
$1.6K
−$3.5K (-68.2%)

Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
No 28.0¢6.0K shares
28.0¢→25.5¢
$1.7K
$6.0K
$1.5K
−$150.03 (-9.0%)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Yes 17.3¢4.0K shares
17.3¢→37.5¢
$691.64
$4.0K
$1.5K
+$808.33 (+116.9%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Yes 28.4¢8.1K shares
28.4¢→18.5¢
$2.3K
$8.1K
$1.5K
−$801.22 (-34.9%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 83.5¢1.7K shares
83.5¢→84.5¢
$1.4K
$1.7K
$1.4K
+$16.58 (+1.2%)
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
Yes 25.4¢4.1K shares
25.4¢→35¢
$1.0K
$4.1K
$1.4K
+$390.20 (+37.9%)

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
No 54.9¢2.1K shares
54.9¢→66¢
$1.1K
$2.1K
$1.4K
+$226.98 (+20.1%)

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 31.5¢10.7K shares
31.5¢→12.4¢
$3.4K
$10.7K
$1.3K
−$2.0K (-60.5%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
No 73.8¢1.7K shares
73.8¢→75.5¢
$1.3K
$1.7K
$1.3K
+$30.10 (+2.3%)

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 17.8¢2.2K shares
17.8¢→54.5¢
$399.10
$2.2K
$1.2K
+$821.65 (+205.9%)

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Yes 60¢2.0K shares
60¢→60.5¢
$1.2K
$2.0K
$1.2K
+$10.00 (+0.8%)

GTA VI released before November 2026?
No 88.6¢1.2K shares
88.6¢→96.7¢
$1.1K
$1.2K
$1.2K
+$98.54 (+9.0%)

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
No 60¢2.1K shares
60¢→57.0¢
$1.2K
$2.1K
$1.2K
−$61.84 (-5.0%)

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Yes 23.3¢1.9K shares
23.3¢→63¢
$431.84
$1.9K
$1.2K
+$734.02 (+170.0%)

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 33.7¢5.7K shares
33.7¢→19.8¢
$1.9K
$5.7K
$1.1K
−$791.57 (-41.4%)

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
No 94.2¢1.1K shares
94.2¢→96.2¢
$1.1K
$1.1K
$1.1K
+$22.50 (+2.1%)

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Yes 50.1¢1.4K shares
50.1¢→69.0¢
$715.72
$1.4K
$985.94
+$270.22 (+37.8%)

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
Yes 35.4¢2.3K shares
35.4¢→41¢
$809.58
$2.3K
$937.80
+$128.22 (+15.8%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes 62.3¢2.3K shares
62.3¢→40.5¢
$1.4K
$2.3K
$915.60
−$492.71 (-35.0%)

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Yes 16.7¢2.0K shares
16.7¢→41.5¢
$326.65
$2.0K
$813.37
+$486.72 (+149.0%)
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
No 98.2¢779.6 shares
98.2¢→98.9¢
$765.91
$779.65
$771.07
+$5.16 (+0.7%)

Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?
No 94.3¢795.1 shares
94.3¢→96.8¢
$749.81
$795.13
$769.29
+$19.48 (+2.6%)

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Yes 15.6¢2.6K shares
15.6¢→27.6¢
$404.66
$2.6K
$715.03
+$310.37 (+76.7%)

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
No 55.0¢750 shares
55.0¢→92.5¢
$412.52
$750.03
$693.78
+$281.26 (+68.2%)

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
No 67.1¢720.6 shares
67.1¢→94.5¢
$483.46
$720.59
$680.96
+$197.50 (+40.9%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes 28.0¢1.9K shares
28.0¢→34.5¢
$542.00
$1.9K
$667.63
+$125.63 (+23.2%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Yes 41.0¢1.7K shares
41.0¢→35.5¢
$695.58
$1.7K
$601.84
−$93.74 (-13.5%)

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 32.0¢2.2K shares
32.0¢→27.0¢
$712.06
$2.2K
$598.83
−$113.23 (-15.9%)

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
No 71.1¢914.7 shares
71.1¢→63.5¢
$650.19
$914.67
$581.18
−$69.01 (-10.6%)

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Yes 3.6¢15.0K shares
3.6¢→3.3¢
$544.76
$15.0K
$495.52
−$49.24 (-9.0%)

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
No 64.9¢714.6 shares
64.9¢→63.3¢
$463.71
$714.55
$452.60
−$11.12 (-2.4%)

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 1.0¢80.9K shares
1.0¢→0.5¢
$847.29
$80.9K
$445.01
−$402.29 (-47.5%)

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.5¢5.0K shares
0.5¢→8.8¢
$27.41
$5.0K
$442.50
+$415.09 (+1514.4%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
No 68.1¢526.1 shares
68.1¢→73.5¢
$358.22
$526.05
$386.65
+$28.43 (+7.9%)

Iran leadership change by December 31?
No 70.7¢482 shares
70.7¢→76.5¢
$340.78
$481.99
$368.72
+$27.94 (+8.2%)

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Yes 22.4¢3.4K shares
22.4¢→10.5¢
$755.85
$3.4K
$353.96
−$401.89 (-53.2%)

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
No 93.5¢361.9 shares
93.5¢→97.3¢
$338.54
$361.87
$351.92
+$13.38 (+4.0%)

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
Yes 56.0¢473.2 shares
56.0¢→68¢
$264.97
$473.16
$321.75
+$56.78 (+21.4%)

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No 50.3¢400 shares
50.3¢→79.8¢
$201.40
$400.00
$319.00
+$117.60 (+58.4%)

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
No 35¢917.7 shares
35¢→33.5¢
$321.20
$917.70
$307.43
−$13.77 (-4.3%)

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 6.4¢3.5K shares
6.4¢→8.6¢
$222.28
$3.5K
$300.54
+$78.25 (+35.2%)

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
No 83.0¢312.9 shares
83.0¢→93.5¢
$259.88
$312.90
$292.56
+$32.68 (+12.6%)

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
No 91.2¢300 shares
91.2¢→89.5¢
$273.50
$300.00
$268.50
−$5.00 (-1.8%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
Yes 15¢2.0K shares
15¢→12.5¢
$300.00
$2.0K
$250.00
−$50.00 (-16.7%)

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
No 79.0¢311.5 shares
79.0¢→78.5¢
$246.01
$311.50
$244.53
−$1.48 (-0.6%)

Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?
Yes 94.4¢240.7 shares
94.4¢→94.0¢
$227.13
$240.67
$226.35
−$0.79 (-0.3%)

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Yes 24.9¢931.8 shares
24.9¢→23¢
$232.00
$931.83
$214.32
−$17.68 (-7.6%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Yes 12.3¢2.3K shares
12.3¢→8¢
$281.89
$2.3K
$183.04
−$98.85 (-35.1%)

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 49.4¢408.2 shares
49.4¢→42.9¢
$201.78
$408.20
$174.91
−$26.87 (-13.3%)

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
No 89.8¢176 shares
89.8¢→95.3¢
$158.06
$175.95
$167.59
+$9.53 (+6.0%)

Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Yes 74.8¢250 shares
74.8¢→65.5¢
$186.94
$250.00
$163.75
−$23.19 (-12.4%)

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
Yes 30.0¢637.5 shares
30.0¢→24.5¢
$191.06
$637.50
$156.19
−$34.87 (-18.3%)

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Yes 52¢1.3K shares
52¢→12¢
$676.00
$1.3K
$156.00
−$520.00 (-76.9%)

Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027?
No 88.2¢166.2 shares
88.2¢→93.5¢
$146.61
$166.16
$155.36
+$8.74 (+6.0%)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No 75.2¢168.7 shares
75.2¢→91.5¢
$126.85
$168.72
$154.38
+$27.52 (+21.7%)

Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Yes 12.0¢968.1 shares
12.0¢→15.5¢
$116.01
$968.09
$150.05
+$34.05 (+29.4%)

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
Yes 39.9¢1.0K shares
39.9¢→14.5¢
$405.76
$1.0K
$147.50
−$258.25 (-63.6%)

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Yes 18.3¢723.6 shares
18.3¢→19.6¢
$132.38
$723.57
$141.82
+$9.44 (+7.1%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Yes 1.9¢18.7K shares
1.9¢→0.8¢
$355.89
$18.7K
$140.59
−$215.30 (-60.5%)

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
No 93.1¢141.6 shares
93.1¢→98.7¢
$131.87
$141.64
$139.73
+$7.86 (+6.0%)

Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Yes 6.5¢322 shares
6.5¢→41.1¢
$21.04
$322.00
$132.50
+$111.46 (+529.6%)

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 1.6¢4.2K shares
1.6¢→2.9¢
$68.37
$4.2K
$122.21
+$53.83 (+78.7%)

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Yes 59¢160.6 shares
59¢→73.5¢
$94.74
$160.57
$118.02
+$23.28 (+24.6%)

Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Yes 6.5¢322 shares
6.5¢→35.4¢
$21.04
$322.00
$114.15
+$93.10 (+442.4%)

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Yes 21.6¢1.0K shares
21.6¢→11¢
$219.09
$1.0K
$111.47
−$107.63 (-49.1%)

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
No 88¢121 shares
88¢→91.6¢
$106.48
$121.00
$110.84
+$4.36 (+4.1%)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Yes 11.3¢337.1 shares
11.3¢→31.7¢
$38.15
$337.14
$106.87
+$68.73 (+180.1%)

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
No 57.8¢129.1 shares
57.8¢→75.5¢
$74.67
$129.10
$97.47
+$22.80 (+30.5%)

Iran full airspace closure by July 27?
No 77¢100 shares
77¢→97.0¢
$77.00
$100.00
$96.95
+$19.95 (+25.9%)

Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?
Yes 65.5¢1.0K shares
65.5¢→9¢
$685.27
$1.0K
$94.12
−$591.15 (-86.3%)

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
No 76.7¢100.1 shares
76.7¢→92.5¢
$76.76
$100.11
$92.60
+$15.84 (+20.6%)

Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?
Yes 0.9¢13.0K shares
0.9¢→0.7¢
$111.33
$13.0K
$84.50
−$26.83 (-24.1%)
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
Yes 5.7¢2.4K shares
5.7¢→3.5¢
$134.02
$2.4K
$82.29
−$51.73 (-38.6%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes 21¢321.3 shares
21¢→24.5¢
$67.46
$321.26
$78.71
+$11.24 (+16.7%)

Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?
Yes 15.6¢2.1K shares
15.6¢→3.6¢
$333.25
$2.1K
$77.85
−$255.39 (-76.6%)
