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PolyScalping

frozenriver

Joined January 2025

Total earnings

$228,639.02
1D
−$141.47
7D
−$680.39
30D
$240.51
90D
$191.6K
Total volume
$15.18M
Predictions
20,233
Positions value
$11.2K
Performance
+$227.4K
+$246.98
+$1,138.72
+$1.56
+$10.00
−$123.45
Overall
#926
of 3.3M wallets
Volume
#1,898
of 3.3M wallets
Profit
#863
of 3.3M wallets
LP Rewards
#8,889
of 189k earners
Maker Rebates
#4,329
of 161k earners
Taker Rebates
#44,259
of 72k earners
Yield
#40,220
of 352k earners
Fees Paid
#106,476
of 1.5M payers
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 83.5¢3.4K shares
$2.9K
+$28.91 (+1.0%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes 39.8¢4.5K shares
$1.8K
−$9.74 (-0.5%)
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
No 76¢640 shares
$486.40
−$25.40 (-5.0%)
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
No 13.5¢3.4K shares
$459.26
−$186.83 (-28.9%)
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
No 94.5¢480 shares
$453.60
+$206.40 (+83.5%)
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?
No 98.5¢453.8 shares
$446.75
+$194.79 (+77.3%)
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?
No 85¢321 shares
$272.84
+$53.18 (+24.2%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
No 8.5¢2.6K shares
$218.68
+$125.51 (+134.7%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
No 85.5¢249.7 shares
$213.52
+$33.71 (+18.7%)
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
No 46.5¢438.3 shares
$203.82
−$11.86 (-5.5%)
Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Yes 27.0¢716.9 shares
$193.20
+$192.48 (+26852.6%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
No 82¢220 shares
$180.40
+$125.00 (+225.6%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No 88.5¢200 shares
$177.00
+$106.00 (+149.3%)
Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?
No 99.9¢168.6 shares
$168.30
+$20.03 (+13.5%)
US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?
No 74¢188.7 shares
$139.62
+$44.29 (+46.5%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
No 96.8¢140 shares
$135.45
+$52.15 (+62.6%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
No 13.5¢1,000 shares
$135.00
+$50.00 (+58.8%)
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Yes 28.2¢443.8 shares
$125.37
+$124.92 (+28154.4%)
Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Yes 12.2¢1.0K shares
$122.00
+$121.00 (+12100.0%)
Will over 60 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?
No 93¢130.9 shares
$121.72
+$94.30 (+343.9%)
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
No 86.9¢130 shares
$112.97
+$27.17 (+31.7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?
Yes 10.5¢1.0K shares
$105.00
+$15.00 (+16.7%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
No 24.4¢410 shares
$100.23
−$112.93 (-53.0%)
Will Bruno Donat be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Yes 24.4¢409.2 shares
$100.04
+$99.64 (+24354.8%)
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 95.5¢100 shares
$95.50
+$21.50 (+29.1%)
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No 97¢80 shares
$77.60
+$20.40 (+35.7%)
Syrian troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?
No 98.4¢75.9 shares
$74.65
+$3.41 (+4.8%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027?
No 84¢88 shares
$73.92
−$0.08 (-0.1%)
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
No 72.5¢95.8 shares
$69.42
+$1.79 (+2.7%)
Syrian troops enter Yemen by December 31, 2026?
No 95¢71.7 shares
$68.09
+$10.92 (+19.1%)
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?
No 70.5¢91.6 shares
$64.56
+$15.02 (+30.3%)
Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?
No 97.4¢64 shares
$62.34
+$11.72 (+23.1%)
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?
No 95.7¢60 shares
$57.39
+$4.99 (+9.5%)
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
No 68.5¢80 shares
$54.80
+$10.40 (+23.4%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No 91¢60 shares
$54.60
+$1.90 (+3.6%)
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?
No 75.5¢70 shares
$52.85
+$9.75 (+22.6%)
Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?
No 83.5¢57 shares
$47.60
+$6.07 (+14.6%)
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?
Yes 90¢51.2 shares
$46.04
+$35.33 (+330.0%)
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
No 83.5¢50 shares
$41.75
+$2.45 (+6.2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Yes 2.1¢2.0K shares
$41.00
−$199.00 (-82.9%)
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?
No 99.3¢40 shares
$39.70
+$2.80 (+7.6%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
No 92¢42.3 shares
$38.94
+$9.13 (+30.6%)
Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31, 2026?
No 91.0¢40 shares
$36.38
+$2.98 (+8.9%)
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
No 90.5¢40 shares
$36.20
+$5.60 (+18.3%)
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?
No 93¢38 shares
$35.34
+$13.46 (+61.5%)
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 29?
Yes 17.5¢183.2 shares
$32.06
−$58.14 (-64.5%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
No 9¢338.1 shares
$30.43
+$14.29 (+88.5%)
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
No 74.5¢40 shares
$29.80
+$0.60 (+2.1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No 96.2¢30 shares
$28.85
+$0.45 (+1.6%)
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by June 30, 2027
No 92.5¢30 shares
$27.75
+$1.35 (+5.1%)
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
No 88¢30 shares
$26.40
−$1.40 (-5.0%)
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Yes 5.3¢452.9 shares
$24.23
+$16.77 (+224.9%)
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?
No 98.1¢24.3 shares
$23.82
+$6.52 (+37.7%)
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by November 30?
Yes 39.5¢55 shares
$21.74
−$0.83 (-3.7%)
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
Yes 53.5¢40 shares
$21.40
+$2.80 (+15.1%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
No 96.3¢20 shares
$19.25
+$0.35 (+1.9%)
Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out by November 30?
No 96¢20 shares
$19.20
+$0.40 (+2.1%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
No 64¢30 shares
$19.20
+$5.10 (+36.2%)
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 29, 2026?
Yes 93.8¢20 shares
$18.76
+$9.26 (+97.5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
No 92.7¢20 shares
$18.54
+$1.04 (+5.9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
No 92.5¢20 shares
$18.50
+$0.50 (+2.8%)
Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?
Yes 3¢596.8 shares
$17.90
+$11.94 (+200.0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
Yes 8.7¢200 shares
$17.40
−$4.60 (-20.9%)
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
No 86.5¢20 shares
$17.30
−$1.50 (-8.0%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Yes 1.7¢1.0K shares
$17.00
−$43.00 (-71.7%)
Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 78.5¢20 shares
$15.70
+$0.80 (+5.4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: November
Something 11.5¢130 shares
$14.95
+$1.75 (+13.3%)
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 31?
Yes 7.5¢172.6 shares
$12.94
−$85.49 (-86.8%)
Will Mia Mottley be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Yes 8.3¢135 shares
$11.14
+$10.97 (+6811.9%)
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
No 36.5¢30 shares
$10.95
+$4.65 (+73.8%)
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
Yes 5.1¢209 shares
$10.66
+$8.57 (+410.0%)
Will Vox win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?
No 100.0¢10 shares
$10.00
+$1.20 (+13.6%)
Will CCa win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?
No 99.8¢10 shares
$9.98
+$0.78 (+8.5%)
Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Seville in the 2026 Spanish general election?
No 98¢10 shares
$9.80
+$0.70 (+7.7%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No 96.7¢10 shares
$9.67
+$0.17 (+1.7%)
Will PP win the most seats in Salamanca in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Yes 96.4¢10 shares
$9.64
+$0.64 (+7.1%)
Will Houthis target Syria by December 31, 2026?
No 95¢10 shares
$9.50
+$0.00 (+0.0%)
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 93.9¢10 shares
$9.39
+$0.19 (+2.1%)
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 15?
No 90.5¢10 shares
$9.05
+$1.15 (+14.6%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
No 18¢50 shares
$9.00
−$0.04 (-0.4%)
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?
No 84.5¢10 shares
$8.45
−$0.55 (-6.1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
No 84.5¢10 shares
$8.45
+$1.95 (+30.0%)
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 84¢10 shares
$8.40
+$0.60 (+7.7%)
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No 82.5¢10 shares
$8.25
+$0.25 (+3.1%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
No 78.5¢10 shares
$7.85
+$0.35 (+4.7%)
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?
No 76¢10 shares
$7.60
+$0.10 (+1.3%)
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 30?
No 82.5¢7.9 shares
$6.50
+$0.83 (+14.6%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
OpenAI 2.1¢300 shares
$6.30
−$5.70 (-47.5%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
No 59.4¢10 shares
$5.94
−$0.47 (-7.3%)
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?
No 93.5¢6.2 shares
$5.79
+$0.22 (+3.9%)
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?
Yes 5.5¢85 shares
$4.68
+$1.68 (+55.8%)
Will PP win the most seats in Pontevedra in the 2026 Spanish general election?
No 8.5¢50 shares
$4.25
+$2.75 (+183.3%)
Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?
Yes 5.5¢77.2 shares
$4.25
−$22.48 (-84.1%)
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?
Yes 12¢35 shares
$4.20
+$2.70 (+180.0%)
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Yes 19.5¢18.4 shares
$3.59
−$0.27 (-7.1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes 16.5¢20 shares
$3.30
+$1.00 (+43.5%)
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?
Yes 10.5¢31.2 shares
$3.28
−$4.04 (-55.2%)
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?
Yes 0.3¢1.1K shares
$2.75
−$9.25 (-77.1%)
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Yes 26¢10 shares
$2.60
+$0.60 (+30.0%)
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?
Yes 0.4¢574.4 shares
$2.58
−$4.16 (-61.7%)