longdated-poli
Flex cardJoined April 2024
Total earnings
$21,514.23
1D
$866.96
7D
$2.9K
30D
$10.0K
90D
$21.8K
Total volume
$3.15M
Predictions
1,968
Positions value
$7.9K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade−$29.4K
LP+$52.5K
Maker+$1.2K
Yield+$7.50
Referral+$104.37
Taker+$180.30
Fees−$3.0K

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes 85¢799 shares
85¢→71¢
$679.15
$799.00
$567.29
−$111.86 (-16.5%)

Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes 93.4¢547.3 shares
93.4¢→92.5¢
$511.09
$547.27
$506.22
−$4.86 (-1.0%)

Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
No 85.5¢660 shares
85.5¢→74.8¢
$564.49
$660.00
$493.68
−$70.81 (-12.5%)

Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
No 88.8¢537.8 shares
88.8¢→85¢
$477.82
$537.79
$457.12
−$20.69 (-4.3%)

Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
No 79.9¢698.4 shares
79.9¢→62.0¢
$558.19
$698.43
$432.68
−$125.51 (-22.5%)

Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
Yes 76.6¢720.2 shares
76.6¢→58.0¢
$552.00
$720.15
$417.69
−$134.31 (-24.3%)

Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
Yes 64.4¢820.2 shares
64.4¢→43.5¢
$528.00
$820.19
$356.78
−$171.22 (-32.4%)

Will Nermin Nikšić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
No 91.5¢427.8 shares
91.5¢→82¢
$391.47
$427.85
$350.83
−$40.63 (-10.4%)
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?
Yes 91¢356.7 shares
91¢→88.5¢
$324.61
$356.71
$315.69
−$8.92 (-2.7%)

Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
Yes 87¢400 shares
87¢→75.5¢
$348.00
$400.00
$302.00
−$46.00 (-13.2%)

Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes 85.5¢369.5 shares
85.5¢→76.5¢
$315.91
$369.46
$282.64
−$33.27 (-10.5%)

Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
No 95.6¢307.2 shares
95.6¢→91.3¢
$293.81
$307.24
$280.36
−$13.45 (-4.6%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by July 31?
No 94.7¢316.2 shares
94.7¢→66.5¢
$299.51
$316.20
$210.27
−$89.24 (-29.8%)

Will Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by July 31, 2026?
No 94.3¢212 shares
94.3¢→87.7¢
$200.00
$211.96
$185.89
−$14.11 (-7.1%)

Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
No 89¢220 shares
89¢→79¢
$195.80
$220.00
$173.80
−$22.00 (-11.2%)

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
No 79¢220 shares
79¢→74.5¢
$173.80
$220.00
$163.90
−$9.90 (-5.7%)

Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
No 90.5¢222.9 shares
90.5¢→71.0¢
$201.64
$222.92
$158.38
−$43.25 (-21.5%)

Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?
Yes 92.3¢178.3 shares
92.3¢→87.5¢
$164.57
$178.30
$156.01
−$8.56 (-5.2%)

Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Yes 93¢168.6 shares
93¢→90.5¢
$156.79
$168.59
$152.57
−$4.21 (-2.7%)

Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?
No 83¢215 shares
83¢→64¢
$178.45
$215.00
$137.60
−$40.85 (-22.9%)

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
No 68¢208.5 shares
68¢→65.5¢
$141.81
$208.54
$136.59
−$5.21 (-3.7%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?
No 90.4¢150.3 shares
90.4¢→90.8¢
$135.84
$150.27
$136.37
+$0.53 (+0.4%)

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Yes 62.2¢220 shares
62.2¢→58.1¢
$136.77
$219.99
$127.81
−$8.96 (-6.5%)

Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
No 89¢153.7 shares
89¢→82¢
$136.75
$153.65
$125.99
−$10.76 (-7.9%)

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
No 61.0¢220 shares
61.0¢→52.5¢
$134.20
$220.00
$115.50
−$18.70 (-13.9%)

Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
Yes 72¢220 shares
72¢→52¢
$158.40
$220.00
$114.40
−$44.00 (-27.8%)

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
No 72.5¢237.6 shares
72.5¢→46.5¢
$172.31
$237.60
$110.48
−$61.82 (-35.9%)

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?
Yes 88¢137.8 shares
88¢→74¢
$121.26
$137.79
$101.96
−$19.29 (-15.9%)

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
No 80.8¢253.8 shares
80.8¢→38¢
$205.23
$253.84
$96.46
−$108.77 (-53.0%)

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
No 92¢105.6 shares
92¢→90¢
$97.19
$105.64
$95.08
−$2.11 (-2.2%)

Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
No 93¢99.1 shares
93¢→87¢
$92.13
$99.06
$86.18
−$5.94 (-6.5%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
No 87.7¢89.6 shares
87.7¢→82¢
$78.56
$89.61
$73.48
−$5.08 (-6.5%)
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?
Yes 91¢98.1 shares
91¢→71¢
$89.29
$98.12
$69.67
−$19.62 (-22.0%)

Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Yes 50¢656.4 shares
50¢→6.5¢
$328.18
$656.35
$42.66
−$285.51 (-87.0%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?
No 34.8¢220 shares
34.8¢→18.5¢
$76.45
$220.00
$40.70
−$35.75 (-46.8%)

Will Dan Barker win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Yes 16.4¢3.6K shares
16.4¢→1.1¢
$593.81
$3.6K
$38.13
−$555.68 (-93.6%)

Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?
No 10.5¢390 shares
10.5¢→9.5¢
$40.95
$390.00
$37.05
−$3.90 (-9.5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-05 House seat?
Yes 10.3¢440 shares
10.3¢→7.8¢
$45.54
$440.01
$34.32
−$11.22 (-24.6%)

Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
No 54¢88.2 shares
54¢→38.5¢
$47.64
$88.23
$33.97
−$13.68 (-28.7%)
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?
No 76¢57.8 shares
76¢→48¢
$43.90
$57.76
$27.72
−$16.17 (-36.8%)

Will Meta (META) beat quarterly earnings?
No 12.0¢440 shares
12.0¢→5.3¢
$53.02
$440.00
$23.32
−$29.70 (-56.0%)

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
No 26.0¢86.3 shares
26.0¢→22.5¢
$22.45
$86.34
$19.43
−$3.02 (-13.5%)

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
No 87¢20 shares
87¢→88.5¢
$17.40
$20.00
$17.70
+$0.30 (+1.7%)

Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Yes 8.0¢318.5 shares
8.0¢→5.5¢
$25.58
$318.54
$17.36
−$8.22 (-32.1%)

Will Cigna Group (CI) beat quarterly earnings?
No 16.5¢118.8 shares
16.5¢→13.5¢
$19.57
$118.75
$16.03
−$3.54 (-18.1%)
Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?
Yes 8.5¢440 shares
8.5¢→3.1¢
$37.40
$440.00
$13.64
−$23.76 (-63.5%)

Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?
Yes 10¢189.7 shares
10¢→5.4¢
$18.97
$189.74
$10.25
−$8.73 (-46.0%)

Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes 5.8¢647.5 shares
5.8¢→1.5¢
$37.37
$647.49
$9.71
−$27.65 (-74.0%)

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Yes 14.3¢92.3 shares
14.3¢→9.5¢
$13.22
$92.25
$8.76
−$4.46 (-33.7%)

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by December 31?
Yes 9¢233.4 shares
9¢→2.1¢
$21.01
$233.39
$4.99
−$16.01 (-76.2%)

Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election?
No 92¢11 shares
92¢→32.2¢
$10.12
$11.00
$3.54
−$6.58 (-65.0%)

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
Yes 11.2¢45 shares
11.2¢→6.7¢
$5.04
$45.00
$2.99
−$2.05 (-40.6%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $14B by July 31?
Yes 0.8¢466 shares
0.8¢→0.6¢
$3.70
$466.00
$2.80
−$0.90 (-24.4%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by July 31?
Yes 0.4¢500 shares
0.4¢→0.4¢
$2.01
$500.01
$2.00
−$0.01 (-0.3%)
Will Richard Dodson be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
Yes 4.8¢440 shares
4.8¢→0.4¢
$20.95
$440.00
$1.76
−$19.19 (-91.6%)

Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Yes 9.4¢345.8 shares
9.4¢→0.4¢
$32.43
$345.82
$1.38
−$31.05 (-95.7%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?
Yes 3.3¢855.8 shares
3.3¢→0.1¢
$28.15
$855.77
$1.28
−$26.87 (-95.4%)
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by July 31?
Yes 1.4¢511.6 shares
1.4¢→0.3¢
$6.94
$511.56
$1.28
−$5.66 (-81.6%)
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Yes 16.2¢650.2 shares
16.2¢→0.1¢
$105.55
$650.17
$0.98
−$104.58 (-99.1%)

Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?
Yes 6.8¢12.9 shares
6.8¢→6.0¢
$0.88
$12.94
$0.78
−$0.10 (-11.0%)

Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Yes 9.9¢50.3 shares
9.9¢→1.5¢
$4.98
$50.27
$0.73
−$4.25 (-85.4%)

Will the Labor Party (PT) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
Yes 35¢111.3 shares
35¢→0.4¢
$38.95
$111.29
$0.50
−$38.45 (-98.7%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $36B by July 31?
Yes 2.7¢47.4 shares
2.7¢→0.9¢
$1.28
$47.39
$0.45
−$0.83 (-64.8%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $145B by July 31?
Yes 0.7¢137 shares
0.7¢→0.1¢
$0.90
$137.02
$0.21
−$0.69 (-77.1%)

Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026?
No 6.1¢201.5 shares
6.1¢→0.1¢
$12.32
$201.45
$0.10
−$12.21 (-99.2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?
Yes 10.3¢4.1 shares
10.3¢→1.4¢
$0.42
$4.06
$0.06
−$0.36 (-86.5%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by July 31?
Yes 3.7¢5 shares
3.7¢→0.6¢
$0.19
$5.01
$0.03
−$0.16 (-84.0%)

Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30?
Yes 1.4¢50 shares
1.4¢→0¢
$0.70
$50.00
Lost

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June?
Yes 4.2¢150 shares
4.2¢→0¢
$6.30
$150.00
Lost

Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?
No 90¢100 shares
90¢→0¢
$90.00
$100.00
Lost

Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?
Yes 0.8¢106.9 shares
0.8¢→0¢
$0.85
$106.85
Lost

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in July?
No 87¢50 shares
87¢→0¢
$43.50
$50.00
Lost

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?
No 1.0¢346 shares
1.0¢→0¢
$3.61
$345.95
Lost
Will Warren Petersen be the Arizona Attorney General Republican nominee?
No 8.4¢212 shares
8.4¢→0¢
$17.74
$212.00
Lost

Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
No 69.9¢152 shares
69.9¢→0¢
$106.30
$152.04
Lost

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in June?
Yes 3.1¢378.4 shares
3.1¢→0¢
$11.92
$378.38
Lost

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
No 94.9¢2.2K shares
94.9¢→0¢
$2.1K
$2.2K
Lost

Will Cisco's AI orders taken from hyperscalers be at least $2.0B in Q3?
Yes 79¢31.7 shares
79¢→0¢
$25.03
$31.68
Lost

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Yes 1.1¢590 shares
1.1¢→0¢
$6.37
$590.00
Lost
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
Yes 10.8¢800 shares
10.8¢→0¢
$86.00
$800.00
Lost

Ebola emergency by June 30?
No 92¢8.1 shares
92¢→0¢
$7.48
$8.13
Lost

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?
No 96.0¢364.3 shares
96.0¢→0¢
$349.94
$364.34
Lost

Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?
No 91.8¢613.4 shares
91.8¢→0¢
$563.31
$613.36
Lost

Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $9.0B in Q3?
Yes 7.5¢52.6 shares
7.5¢→0¢
$3.94
$52.58
Lost

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
No 7.3¢341.4 shares
7.3¢→0¢
$24.96
$341.36
Lost

Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
No 91¢549.7 shares
91¢→0¢
$500.24
$549.67
Lost

Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?
Yes 3.8¢141 shares
3.8¢→0¢
$5.42
$141.00
Lost
