Total earnings
$176,778.14
1D
−$3.6K
7D
−$15.1K
30D
−$240.26
90D
$44.9K
Total volume
$83.39M
Predictions
16,387
Positions value
$202.1K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade−$219.4K
LP+$392.8K
Maker+$2.8K
Yield+$582.26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
No 48.0¢117.0K shares
48.0¢→55.5¢
$56.2K
$117.0K
$64.9K
+$8.7K (+15.5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
No 55.9¢115.1K shares
55.9¢→45.5¢
$64.3K
$115.1K
$52.4K
−$11.9K (-18.6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 84.6¢10.2K shares
84.6¢→84.5¢
$8.7K
$10.2K
$8.7K
−$8.01 (-0.1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 83.2¢5.6K shares
83.2¢→86.5¢
$4.7K
$5.6K
$4.9K
+$184.75 (+3.9%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No 72.8¢5.1K shares
72.8¢→78.6¢
$3.7K
$5.1K
$4.0K
+$298.82 (+8.1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 35.6¢4.0K shares
35.6¢→87.5¢
$1.4K
$4.0K
$3.5K
+$2.1K (+145.7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes 55.7¢3.8K shares
55.7¢→82.3¢
$2.1K
$3.8K
$3.2K
+$1.0K (+47.7%)
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No 71.4¢3.6K shares
71.4¢→83.5¢
$2.6K
$3.6K
$3.0K
+$437.47 (+16.9%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes 72.8¢3.0K shares
72.8¢→94.7¢
$2.2K
$3.0K
$2.9K
+$660.94 (+29.9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
No 91¢2.5K shares
91¢→92.5¢
$2.2K
$2.5K
$2.3K
+$36.77 (+1.6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No 60.3¢1.8K shares
60.3¢→93.5¢
$1.1K
$1.8K
$1.7K
+$606.11 (+55.2%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No 58.5¢3.8K shares
58.5¢→44.6¢
$2.2K
$3.8K
$1.7K
−$529.57 (-23.7%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No 98.9¢1.6K shares
98.9¢→98.8¢
$1.6K
$1.6K
$1.6K
−$1.83 (-0.1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
No 42¢1.5K shares
42¢→97.4¢
$630.00
$1.5K
$1.5K
+$831.00 (+131.9%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 20.8¢6.8K shares
20.8¢→20.9¢
$1.4K
$6.8K
$1.4K
+$12.74 (+0.9%)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Yes 81.8¢1.5K shares
81.8¢→83.5¢
$1.2K
$1.5K
$1.3K
+$25.96 (+2.1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No 60.9¢1.7K shares
60.9¢→69.5¢
$1.0K
$1.7K
$1.2K
+$147.13 (+14.2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No 37.5¢3.0K shares
37.5¢→37.5¢
$1.1K
$3.0K
$1.1K
+$0.71 (+0.1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 46.5¢1.6K shares
46.5¢→64.5¢
$724.42
$1.6K
$1.0K
+$279.49 (+38.6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
No 55.3¢1.2K shares
55.3¢→82.5¢
$665.45
$1.2K
$992.98
+$327.53 (+49.2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
No 79.7¢901.6 shares
79.7¢→96.3¢
$718.41
$901.55
$867.75
+$149.34 (+20.8%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
No 87.3¢1.1K shares
87.3¢→76¢
$971.32
$1.1K
$846.05
−$125.28 (-12.9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes 19.2¢10.5K shares
19.2¢→6.5¢
$2.0K
$10.5K
$682.59
−$1.3K (-66.2%)
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
No 83.5¢841.5 shares
83.5¢→74.1¢
$702.61
$841.45
$623.09
−$79.52 (-11.3%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
No 93¢623.4 shares
93¢→98.5¢
$579.73
$623.36
$613.70
+$33.97 (+5.9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes 61.1¢910 shares
61.1¢→61.5¢
$556.40
$909.97
$559.63
+$3.23 (+0.6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
No 80.2¢653.1 shares
80.2¢→81.8¢
$523.79
$653.11
$533.92
+$10.12 (+1.9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?
No 74.6¢739.2 shares
74.6¢→70.5¢
$551.63
$739.23
$521.16
−$30.47 (-5.5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No 38.4¢1.3K shares
38.4¢→38.5¢
$504.37
$1.3K
$505.68
+$1.31 (+0.3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
No 42¢1.2K shares
42¢→41.5¢
$493.50
$1.2K
$487.63
−$5.88 (-1.2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
No 63¢500 shares
63¢→96.2¢
$315.00
$500.00
$480.75
+$165.75 (+52.6%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
No 82¢500 shares
82¢→95.5¢
$409.99
$499.99
$477.49
+$67.50 (+16.5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 90¢500 shares
90¢→94.5¢
$450.00
$500.00
$472.50
+$22.50 (+5.0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
No 65¢500 shares
65¢→94.5¢
$325.00
$500.00
$472.50
+$147.50 (+45.4%)
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
No 45.9¢498 shares
45.9¢→92.5¢
$228.37
$498.02
$460.67
+$232.30 (+101.7%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 70.2¢460.5 shares
70.2¢→99.6¢
$323.30
$460.49
$458.42
+$135.12 (+41.8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
No 95.2¢459.5 shares
95.2¢→98.6¢
$437.42
$459.48
$452.82
+$15.39 (+3.5%)
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
Yes 63¢1.3K shares
63¢→36¢
$787.62
$1.3K
$450.07
−$337.55 (-42.9%)
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
No 32.3¢1.1K shares
32.3¢→40.9¢
$350.83
$1.1K
$444.12
+$93.29 (+26.6%)
Will The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?
Yes 92.2¢710.1 shares
92.2¢→62.0¢
$654.75
$710.14
$439.93
−$214.82 (-32.8%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
No 76¢462.9 shares
76¢→93.5¢
$351.77
$462.86
$432.77
+$81.00 (+23.0%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
No 78.4¢451.9 shares
78.4¢→95.3¢
$354.46
$451.90
$430.88
+$76.43 (+21.6%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No 71.9¢403.5 shares
71.9¢→95.6¢
$290.27
$403.45
$385.70
+$95.43 (+32.9%)
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
No 51.5¢748.4 shares
51.5¢→50.5¢
$385.84
$748.44
$377.96
−$7.88 (-2.0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 14.9¢2.8K shares
14.9¢→13.5¢
$409.57
$2.8K
$371.54
−$38.03 (-9.3%)
New pandemic in 2026?
No 90¢395.6 shares
90¢→93.5¢
$356.04
$395.60
$369.89
+$13.85 (+3.9%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 13.0¢2.5K shares
13.0¢→14.8¢
$322.00
$2.5K
$365.35
+$43.35 (+13.5%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Yes 61.9¢570 shares
61.9¢→63¢
$352.63
$569.96
$359.07
+$6.45 (+1.8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Yes 30¢1.2K shares
30¢→29.5¢
$353.36
$1.2K
$347.47
−$5.89 (-1.7%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
No 84.1¢384.7 shares
84.1¢→88.5¢
$323.47
$384.70
$340.46
+$16.99 (+5.3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 84.0¢391.2 shares
84.0¢→86.5¢
$328.58
$391.19
$338.38
+$9.80 (+3.0%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Yes 90¢334 shares
90¢→93¢
$300.63
$334.03
$310.65
+$10.02 (+3.3%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
No 23.9¢1.5K shares
23.9¢→20.5¢
$354.26
$1.5K
$303.65
−$50.61 (-14.3%)
Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?
Yes 54.0¢550.5 shares
54.0¢→53.5¢
$297.17
$550.49
$294.51
−$2.65 (-0.9%)
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
No 95.8¢300 shares
95.8¢→95.5¢
$287.40
$300.00
$286.65
−$0.75 (-0.3%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
No 84.5¢304.3 shares
84.5¢→93¢
$257.02
$304.27
$282.97
+$25.95 (+10.1%)
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
No 48.8¢490.8 shares
48.8¢→56.0¢
$239.73
$490.83
$274.87
+$35.13 (+14.7%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026?
No 92¢280 shares
92¢→94.5¢
$257.59
$279.99
$264.59
+$7.00 (+2.7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
No 76.5¢294.4 shares
76.5¢→89.5¢
$225.12
$294.40
$263.49
+$38.37 (+17.0%)
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
No 73.3¢330.7 shares
73.3¢→78¢
$242.55
$330.74
$257.97
+$15.42 (+6.4%)
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?
No 64¢300 shares
64¢→85.2¢
$192.00
$300.00
$255.60
+$63.60 (+33.1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
Yes 63.0¢409.9 shares
63.0¢→62¢
$258.21
$409.90
$254.14
−$4.07 (-1.6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Yes 21.5¢2.9K shares
21.5¢→8.5¢
$633.21
$2.9K
$250.72
−$382.49 (-60.4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 6?
No 54.8¢474 shares
54.8¢→51.5¢
$259.94
$473.96
$244.09
−$15.85 (-6.1%)
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?
Yes 92.8¢250.1 shares
92.8¢→96.9¢
$232.17
$250.11
$242.36
+$10.18 (+4.4%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
No 22.1¢232.3 shares
22.1¢→99.6¢
$51.30
$232.26
$231.21
+$179.92 (+350.7%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
Yes 46¢304.6 shares
46¢→74.5¢
$140.11
$304.58
$226.91
+$86.81 (+62.0%)
Will Leonardo Bonucci attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
No 95.8¢245.1 shares
95.8¢→91.2¢
$234.82
$245.12
$223.55
−$11.28 (-4.8%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
No 61.6¢238.8 shares
61.6¢→90.5¢
$147.17
$238.83
$216.14
+$68.98 (+46.9%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
No 52¢429.4 shares
52¢→50¢
$223.30
$429.39
Won
$214.70
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
No 64.3¢464.4 shares
64.3¢→46¢
$298.65
$464.36
$213.61
−$85.05 (-28.5%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
No 57.9¢233 shares
57.9¢→90.5¢
$134.83
$232.96
$210.83
+$76.00 (+56.4%)
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
Yes 89¢232.4 shares
89¢→87.5¢
$206.80
$232.36
$203.32
−$3.49 (-1.7%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
No 62.8¢359.4 shares
62.8¢→56.0¢
$225.76
$359.42
$201.28
−$24.48 (-10.8%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 51.2¢384.5 shares
51.2¢→52.3¢
$196.76
$384.48
$201.08
+$4.32 (+2.2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
No 47.1¢447.4 shares
47.1¢→44.5¢
$210.56
$447.42
$199.10
−$11.45 (-5.4%)
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
No 93.2¢200 shares
93.2¢→98.5¢
$186.48
$200.01
$196.91
+$10.43 (+5.6%)
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No 54¢358.9 shares
54¢→54.5¢
$193.83
$358.94
$195.62
+$1.79 (+0.9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 5.0¢1.5K shares
5.0¢→13.2¢
$74.43
$1.5K
$194.25
+$119.83 (+161.0%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No 48.2¢396 shares
48.2¢→47.7¢
$191.06
$395.98
$188.88
−$2.17 (-1.1%)
Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?
Yes 49¢480 shares
49¢→39¢
$235.21
$480.03
$187.21
−$48.00 (-20.4%)
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Yes 49¢408.2 shares
49¢→45.5¢
$200.01
$408.18
$185.72
−$14.29 (-7.1%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
No 69.0¢287.9 shares
69.0¢→60.5¢
$198.62
$287.85
$174.15
−$24.47 (-12.3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
No 81.1¢190 shares
81.1¢→91.5¢
$154.16
$190.04
$173.89
+$19.73 (+12.8%)
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
No 47¢216 shares
47¢→80.5¢
$101.51
$215.98
$173.86
+$72.35 (+71.3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?
No 56.2¢345.8 shares
56.2¢→49.5¢
$194.34
$345.79
$171.17
−$23.17 (-11.9%)
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
No 90.3¢167.7 shares
90.3¢→100.0¢
$151.49
$167.69
$167.61
+$16.12 (+10.6%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
No 10.4¢1.3K shares
10.4¢→12.5¢
$133.88
$1.3K
$160.87
+$26.99 (+20.2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
No 39.7¢413 shares
39.7¢→38¢
$163.87
$412.95
$156.92
−$6.95 (-4.2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
No 61.9¢201.3 shares
61.9¢→77.5¢
$124.52
$201.31
$156.02
+$31.49 (+25.3%)
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?
No 83.6¢155 shares
83.6¢→99.2¢
$129.63
$154.98
$153.66
+$24.03 (+18.5%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
No 42.2¢302.2 shares
42.2¢→50¢
$127.59
$302.20
Won
$151.10
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?
No 30¢1.4K shares
30¢→10.5¢
$428.85
$1.4K
$150.10
−$278.75 (-65.0%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes 2.9¢4.3K shares
2.9¢→3.5¢
$125.23
$4.3K
$146.85
+$21.61 (+17.3%)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
Yes 56.8¢302.1 shares
56.8¢→48.5¢
$171.70
$302.11
$146.52
−$25.18 (-14.7%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No 62.8¢217.6 shares
62.8¢→66.5¢
$136.79
$217.61
$144.71
+$7.92 (+5.8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Yes 35.7¢413.1 shares
35.7¢→35¢
$147.50
$413.07
$144.57
−$2.93 (-2.0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
No 52¢284.2 shares
52¢→50¢
$147.81
$284.24
Won
$142.12
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
No 71.5¢137 shares
71.5¢→100.0¢
$97.86
$136.95
$136.88
+$39.02 (+39.9%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
Yes 12.7¢568.2 shares
12.7¢→24¢
$71.97
$568.21
$136.37
+$64.40 (+89.5%)