Warren-Buffett
Flex cardJoined October 2025
Total earnings
$179,828.60
1D
$5.2K
7D
$2.6K
30D
$11.3K
90D
$97.1K
Total volume
$25.36M
Predictions
1,419
Positions value
$157.7K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade+$177.7K
LP+$3.1K
Maker+$327.05
Yield+$40.80
Taker+$67.40
Fees−$2.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 84.0¢30.0K shares
84.0¢→78.5¢
$25.2K
$30.0K
$23.6K
−$1.6K (-6.5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes 57.3¢30.0K shares
57.3¢→70.5¢
$17.2K
$30.0K
$21.2K
+$4.0K (+23.0%)
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
No 69.4¢13.0K shares
69.4¢→91.5¢
$9.0K
$13.0K
$11.9K
+$2.9K (+31.8%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 79.1¢10.0K shares
79.1¢→85.0¢
$7.9K
$10.0K
$8.5K
+$592.07 (+7.5%)
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
Yes 85.7¢8.0K shares
85.7¢→86.5¢
$6.9K
$8.0K
$6.9K
+$61.21 (+0.9%)
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
No 94.8¢7.0K shares
94.8¢→95.7¢
$6.6K
$7.0K
$6.7K
+$59.01 (+0.9%)
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
No 61.5¢10.0K shares
61.5¢→66¢
$6.1K
$10.0K
$6.6K
+$452.45 (+7.4%)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Yes 39.9¢10.0K shares
39.9¢→51.5¢
$4.0K
$10.0K
$5.1K
+$1.2K (+29.1%)
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
No 67.7¢5.9K shares
67.7¢→72.5¢
$4.0K
$5.9K
$4.3K
+$284.45 (+7.1%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
No 82¢5.0K shares
82¢→85¢
$4.1K
$5.0K
$4.2K
+$149.75 (+3.7%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
No 75.8¢5.0K shares
75.8¢→75.5¢
$3.8K
$5.0K
$3.8K
−$15.00 (-0.4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
No 94.2¢3.7K shares
94.2¢→99.5¢
$3.5K
$3.7K
$3.7K
+$195.64 (+5.6%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
No 86.9¢4.2K shares
86.9¢→78.5¢
$3.6K
$4.2K
$3.3K
−$348.99 (-9.6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 12.7¢20.0K shares
12.7¢→15.5¢
$2.5K
$20.0K
$3.1K
+$550.10 (+21.6%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
No 84.5¢3.1K shares
84.5¢→98.6¢
$2.6K
$3.1K
$3.1K
+$441.29 (+16.7%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
No 64¢5.0K shares
64¢→61¢
$3.2K
$5.0K
$3.0K
−$150.00 (-4.7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
No 99.2¢3.0K shares
99.2¢→99.4¢
$3.0K
$3.0K
$3.0K
+$4.50 (+0.2%)
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
No 49.5¢4.7K shares
49.5¢→59.5¢
$2.3K
$4.7K
$2.8K
+$464.27 (+20.1%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
No 97.4¢2.7K shares
97.4¢→98.2¢
$2.7K
$2.7K
$2.7K
+$20.70 (+0.8%)
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Yes 92.4¢2.5K shares
92.4¢→95.8¢
$2.3K
$2.5K
$2.4K
+$85.00 (+3.7%)
Iran coup attempt by December 31?
Yes 13.3¢18.1K shares
13.3¢→12.5¢
$2.4K
$18.1K
$2.3K
−$135.83 (-5.7%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Yes 18.0¢17.6K shares
18.0¢→11¢
$3.2K
$17.6K
$1.9K
−$1.2K (-39.0%)
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
No 90.3¢1.9K shares
90.3¢→99.7¢
$1.7K
$1.9K
$1.9K
+$177.30 (+10.3%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Yes 56.7¢3.0K shares
56.7¢→60¢
$1.7K
$3.0K
$1.8K
+$100.01 (+5.9%)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
No 55.9¢4.0K shares
55.9¢→44¢
$2.2K
$4.0K
$1.8K
−$475.86 (-21.3%)
Nothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing 84.7¢2.0K shares
84.7¢→78¢
$1.7K
$2.0K
$1.6K
−$133.99 (-7.9%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Yes 42¢3.5K shares
42¢→43.5¢
$1.5K
$3.5K
$1.5K
+$52.96 (+3.6%)
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?
No 74.0¢1.5K shares
74.0¢→91.5¢
$1.1K
$1.5K
$1.4K
+$268.26 (+23.6%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No 65.0¢2.0K shares
65.0¢→67.5¢
$1.3K
$2.0K
$1.3K
+$49.36 (+3.8%)
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
No 97.3¢1.3K shares
97.3¢→99.4¢
$1.2K
$1.3K
$1.3K
+$26.20 (+2.1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
No 53.0¢2.0K shares
53.0¢→57.0¢
$1.1K
$2.0K
$1.1K
+$79.44 (+7.5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Yes 3.4¢29.5K shares
3.4¢→3.3¢
$998.56
$29.5K
$973.89
−$24.67 (-2.5%)
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
No 79.2¢1,000 shares
79.2¢→95.7¢
$792.39
$999.99
$956.99
+$164.60 (+20.8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes 8.3¢10.0K shares
8.3¢→9.5¢
$835.37
$10.0K
$950.00
+$114.63 (+13.7%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes 76.4¢1.0K shares
76.4¢→78.1¢
$764.00
$1.0K
$781.50
+$17.50 (+2.3%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Yes 13.2¢10.0K shares
13.2¢→6.5¢
$1.3K
$10.0K
$650.00
−$669.97 (-50.8%)
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
No 88.4¢700 shares
88.4¢→88.5¢
$619.00
$700.00
$619.50
+$0.50 (+0.1%)
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Yes 25.5¢2.0K shares
25.5¢→30.5¢
$509.99
$2.0K
$610.00
+$100.01 (+19.6%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Yes 18¢2.6K shares
18¢→22.5¢
$467.42
$2.6K
$584.27
+$116.85 (+25.0%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?
No 74.1¢583.4 shares
74.1¢→98.8¢
$432.47
$583.36
$576.07
+$143.60 (+33.2%)
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
No 30¢2.0K shares
30¢→25.5¢
$600.00
$2.0K
$510.00
−$90.00 (-15.0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No 44¢1,000 shares
44¢→37.5¢
$440.00
$1,000.00
$375.00
−$65.00 (-14.8%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
No 81.9¢310 shares
81.9¢→95.8¢
$253.93
$310.00
$296.98
+$43.05 (+17.0%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Yes 14.3¢10.0K shares
14.3¢→2.9¢
$1.4K
$10.0K
$295.08
−$1.1K (-79.4%)
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Yes 87.2¢300 shares
87.2¢→93.0¢
$261.70
$300.00
$278.85
+$17.15 (+6.6%)
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
No 72.8¢297 shares
72.8¢→91.0¢
$216.28
$296.99
$270.41
+$54.13 (+25.0%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Yes 18.6¢5.0K shares
18.6¢→4¢
$929.97
$5.0K
$200.00
−$729.97 (-78.5%)
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?
No 85¢200 shares
85¢→94.5¢
$170.00
$200.00
$189.00
+$19.00 (+11.2%)
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
No 39.7¢4.0K shares
39.7¢→4.6¢
$1.6K
$4.0K
$184.00
−$1.4K (-88.4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
No 96.2¢172.4 shares
96.2¢→99.3¢
$165.82
$172.37
$171.07
+$5.26 (+3.2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Yes 23.6¢735.3 shares
23.6¢→21.5¢
$173.81
$735.26
$158.08
−$15.73 (-9.1%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Yes 6.8¢500 shares
6.8¢→27.6¢
$34.01
$500.00
$138.00
+$103.99 (+305.7%)
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?
No 12¢2.0K shares
12¢→2.9¢
$240.00
$2.0K
$57.00
−$183.00 (-76.3%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Yes 10.3¢486.1 shares
10.3¢→10.3¢
$50.05
$486.09
$49.82
−$0.23 (-0.5%)
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Yes 22.5¢2.0K shares
22.5¢→2.5¢
$450.23
$2.0K
$49.00
−$401.23 (-89.1%)
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
No 88¢35 shares
88¢→97.5¢
$30.78
$34.98
$34.11
+$3.32 (+10.8%)
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Yes 1.8¢6.7K shares
1.8¢→0.5¢
$125.05
$6.7K
$33.62
−$91.43 (-73.1%)
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Yes 1.7¢4.7K shares
1.7¢→0.5¢
$80.62
$4.7K
$23.43
−$57.19 (-70.9%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Yes 23¢65.2 shares
23¢→23.5¢
$14.99
$65.19
$15.32
+$0.33 (+2.2%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
Yes 0.4¢1.4K shares
0.4¢→0.6¢
$5.58
$1.4K
$8.37
+$2.79 (+50.0%)
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
Yes 50.1¢4.0K shares
50.1¢→0.1¢
$2.0K
$4.0K
$2.00
−$2.0K (-99.9%)