thecaricature

Joined June 2025

Total earnings

$12,432.33

1D

$66.66

7D

$243.06

30D

−$386.66

90D

$1.3K

Total volume

$10.18M

Predictions

6,930

Positions value

$5.9K

PerformancePerformance over all time

Trade−$5.4K

LP+$17.8K

Maker+$326.51

Yield+$1.92

Fees−$297.05

of 3.1M wallets

of 3.1M wallets

of 3.1M wallets

of 177k earners

of 139k earners

of 335k earners

Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Yes 5.3¢2.0K shares

−$31.39 (-28.9%)

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Yes 4.1¢2.0K shares

−$21.99 (-26.5%)

Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes 20.7¢500 shares

20.7¢→10.5¢

−$51.00 (-49.3%)

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?

Yes 13.4¢507.4 shares

−$17.49 (-25.6%)

Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Yes 4.1¢2.1K shares

−$38.42 (-44.9%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 14.6¢360 shares

14.6¢→12.5¢

−$7.70 (-14.6%)

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 15.0¢263.2 shares

15.0¢→15.3¢

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 5.7¢485.4 shares

+$11.06 (+39.8%)

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?

Yes 6.0¢669 shares

−$1.44 (-3.6%)

Tim Walz in jail by December 31?

Yes 6.8¢622.1 shares

−$4.67 (-11.1%)

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 3.1¢1.4K shares

−$8.16 (-18.3%)

Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 0.2¢4.0K shares

+$28.86 (+412.8%)

Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?

Yes 5.8¢589.9 shares

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat?

No 5.4¢740.3 shares

−$5.25 (-13.1%)

Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?

Yes 16.4¢329.2 shares

16.4¢→10.3¢

−$20.16 (-37.4%)

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

Yes 19.9¢165.1 shares

Will the Democratic Party win the MA-07 House seat?

No 4.8¢570 shares

+$5.64 (+20.8%)

Will the Democratic Party win the MD-07 House seat?

No 5.3¢750 shares

−$7.45 (-18.6%)

Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?

No 6.3¢500 shares

Will the Democratic Party win the PA-03 House seat?

No 5.8¢700 shares

−$8.30 (-20.5%)

Will the Democratic Party win the MD-08 House seat?

No 4.9¢820 shares

−$8.25 (-20.7%)

Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?

No 5.2¢500 shares

+$4.16 (+16.1%)

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 25.7¢120 shares

−$2.01 (-6.5%)

Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be >7 minutes?

No 6.5¢28.3 shares

+$26.27 (+1430.3%)

Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes 5.8¢800 shares

−$18.80 (-40.2%)

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 6.6¢425.9 shares

−$0.33 (-1.2%)

Will the Republican Party win the OR-01 House seat?

Yes 6¢500 shares

−$2.50 (-8.3%)

Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Yes 1.1¢1.7K shares

+$9.90 (+56.6%)

Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?

No 6¢550 shares

−$5.79 (-17.5%)

Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?

Yes 5¢600 shares

−$3.00 (-10.0%)

Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31?

No 30.6¢96.8 shares

30.6¢→27.5¢

−$2.98 (-10.1%)

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Yes 8.5¢250 shares

+$5.09 (+24.1%)

Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat?

Yes 6¢400 shares

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?

No 4.5¢951.1 shares

−$17.53 (-40.6%)

Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?

Yes 5¢500 shares

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 13.2¢200 shares

13.2¢→12.5¢

−$1.50 (-5.7%)

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-17 House seat?

No 4.7¢477.9 shares

Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?

Yes 3.4¢720 shares

−$0.29 (-1.2%)

Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Yes 0.1¢16.2K shares

+$6.32 (+35.0%)

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?

No 6.6¢400 shares

−$2.04 (-7.8%)

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

Yes 35.1¢92.5 shares

−$8.41 (-25.9%)

Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 0.3¢812.5 shares

+$21.91 (+1062.3%)

Will Sydney Kamlager-Dove win the CA-37 House seat?

No 9.5¢400 shares

−$14.60 (-38.4%)

Will the Republican Party win the PA-02 House seat?

Yes 5.0¢400 shares

+$3.20 (+15.8%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

No 7.9¢150 shares

+$11.43 (+96.7%)

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?

No 4.6¢200 shares

+$13.95 (+150.9%)

Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Yes 0.7¢2.0K shares

+$9.47 (+69.3%)

Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 5.4¢436 shares

−$0.53 (-2.3%)

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Yes 4.8¢689 shares

−$9.96 (-30.1%)

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

No 8¢500 shares

−$17.25 (-43.1%)

Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?

No 12.0¢196.6 shares

12.0¢→11.5¢

−$0.95 (-4.0%)

Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?

Yes 7.0¢500 shares

−$12.50 (-35.7%)

Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

No 74¢40 shares

−$7.40 (-25.0%)

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Yes 7.3¢200 shares

+$7.41 (+50.5%)

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-05 House seat?

No 4.9¢450 shares

−$0.05 (-0.2%)

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat?

No 5.3¢800 shares

−$20.85 (-48.7%)

Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?

Yes 9.5¢311.5 shares

−$7.78 (-26.3%)

Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Yes 83¢30 shares

−$3.15 (-12.7%)

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Yes 2.4¢800 shares

+$2.00 (+10.2%)

Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes 13.5¢330 shares

−$23.15 (-51.9%)

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Yes 9.8¢300 shares

−$8.40 (-28.6%)

Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 0.3¢4.1K shares

+$9.43 (+84.0%)

Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?

No 6.2¢350 shares

−$0.90 (-4.2%)

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?

Yes 5.3¢120 shares

+$13.99 (+218.1%)

Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by July 31?

Yes 2.1¢1.1K shares

−$3.87 (-16.0%)

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?

No 5.8¢335.5 shares

Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 7.8¢265.6 shares

−$0.90 (-4.3%)

Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?

Yes 5.3¢560 shares

−$10.08 (-33.7%)

Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Yes 12.5¢440 shares

−$35.24 (-64.0%)

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

No 36.9¢54 shares

36.9¢→36.5¢

−$0.23 (-1.2%)

Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 0.3¢1.7K shares

+$13.83 (+241.7%)

Will the Democratic Party win the VA-09 House seat?

Yes 7.3¢300 shares

−$2.29 (-10.5%)

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?

Yes 5.3¢637.1 shares

−$14.33 (-42.5%)

Will the Republican Party win the CA-44 House seat?

Yes 2.3¢900 shares

−$1.74 (-8.3%)

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-12 House seat?

No 6¢350 shares

−$1.75 (-8.3%)

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Yes 5.0¢400 shares

−$1.16 (-5.7%)

Will Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?

No 12.7¢140 shares

12.7¢→13.5¢

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?

Yes 5.1¢200 shares

+$8.49 (+82.4%)

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?

No 5.1¢293.3 shares

+$3.77 (+25.3%)

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Yes 5¢120 shares

+$12.60 (+210.0%)

Will the Democratic Party win the PA-02 House seat?

No 5.6¢334.6 shares

−$0.48 (-2.5%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Yes 8.5¢150 shares

+$5.25 (+41.2%)

Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?

Yes 7.0¢400 shares

−$10.00 (-35.7%)

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Yes 8.3¢298.9 shares

−$6.97 (-28.0%)

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?

No 5.6¢400 shares

−$4.64 (-20.7%)

Tom Lee charged by December 31?

Yes 8.2¢323.4 shares

−$8.82 (-33.2%)

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-13 House seat?

No 6.2¢275 shares

Will Allegiant announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Yes 4.1¢525 shares

−$3.91 (-18.2%)

Will the Republican Party win the MD-07 House seat?

Yes 4.9¢450 shares

−$4.55 (-20.6%)

Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 0.4¢722.6 shares

+$14.52 (+514.6%)

Will Waymo operate in 32 or more cities on December 31 2026?

Yes 7.4¢178.9 shares

+$3.76 (+28.4%)

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-29 House seat?

No 5.3¢399.2 shares

−$4.02 (-19.1%)

Will the Republican Party win the OH-11 House seat?

Yes 5.5¢300 shares

Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026?

Yes 7.8¢335.6 shares

−$9.31 (-35.7%)

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes 6.1¢539.8 shares

−$16.45 (-49.6%)

Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by July 31?

Yes 25.2¢50 shares

25.2¢→33.4¢

+$4.09 (+32.5%)

Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?

Yes 37¢100 shares

−$20.50 (-55.4%)

Will the Republican Party win the WA-06 House seat?

Yes 6¢300 shares

−$1.50 (-8.3%)

Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?

Yes 8.8¢300 shares

−$10.00 (-37.7%)

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?

Yes 85¢20 shares

−$0.60 (-3.5%)