probability

Flex card
Joined August 2024

Total earnings

$106,613.81
1D
$869.84
7D
−$71.3K
30D
−$19.4K
90D
$52.9K
Total volume
$12.38M
Predictions
3,925
Positions value
$103.3K
Performance
+$104.6K
+$1.9K
+$1.1K
+$197.77
+$230.70
+$70.15
$1.4K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No 50¢80.0K shares
$77.1K
+$37.1K (+92.7%)
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
No 98.2¢3.6K shares
$3.6K
+$50.36 (+1.4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes 50¢80.0K shares
$2.9K
−$37.1K (-92.7%)
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
No 69.0¢3.5K shares
$2.6K
+$226.78 (+9.4%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
Yes 20.8¢4.3K shares
$1.5K
+$629.36 (+69.9%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
Yes 74.7¢2.2K shares
$1.5K
−$148.84 (-9.2%)
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Yes 31¢3.0K shares
$1.2K
+$315.21 (+33.9%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?
Yes 86.1¢1.4K shares
$1.1K
−$118.39 (-9.7%)
Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
Yes 36.7¢1.0K shares
$1.0K
+$627.59 (+168.2%)
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
No 6.9¢20.8K shares
$871.89
−$555.29 (-38.9%)
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Yes 74.8¢1.0K shares
$745.00
−$2.50 (-0.3%)
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
Yes 98.9¢743.5 shares
$740.88
+$5.58 (+0.8%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No 59.6¢1.2K shares
$735.42
−$6.44 (-0.9%)
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
No 54.0¢1.1K shares
$730.19
+$119.09 (+19.5%)
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?
No 97.7¢511.8 shares
$503.85
+$3.86 (+0.8%)
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Yes 6.2¢11.5K shares
$499.19
−$219.30 (-30.5%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 71.0¢535.2 shares
$436.13
+$56.19 (+14.8%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?
Yes 78.7¢581.7 shares
$401.34
−$56.55 (-12.3%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 24.4¢1.6K shares
$400.16
+$21.10 (+5.6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 72.8¢445.8 shares
$394.54
+$70.21 (+21.6%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Yes 97¢400 shares
$357.20
−$30.80 (-7.9%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
No 37.1¢298.1 shares
$242.91
+$132.18 (+119.4%)
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 65.0¢276.4 shares
$236.33
+$56.52 (+31.4%)
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
Yes 19.0¢1.1K shares
$205.09
+$4.74 (+2.4%)
Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
No 70¢196 shares
$195.61
+$58.41 (+42.6%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
No 0.2¢4.0K shares
$183.65
+$175.67 (+2200.0%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?
Yes 58.3¢476.8 shares
$174.03
−$103.73 (-37.3%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
No 69.8¢209.6 shares
$169.81
+$23.40 (+16.0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Yes 37.5¢1.4K shares
$164.96
−$372.26 (-69.3%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Yes 53.1¢350 shares
$154.00
−$32.00 (-17.2%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Yes 13.0¢885 shares
$146.46
+$31.16 (+27.0%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
No 5.1¢9.6K shares
$124.96
−$362.51 (-74.4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
No 11¢673 shares
$121.14
+$47.11 (+63.6%)
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 39.0¢312.7 shares
$115.69
−$6.37 (-5.2%)
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
Yes 64.9¢347.4 shares
$109.44
−$115.94 (-51.4%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Yes 1.5¢12.7K shares
$89.05
−$96.32 (-52.0%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 13.7¢760.8 shares
$87.87
−$16.70 (-16.0%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?
Yes 71.9¢401.9 shares
$84.41
−$204.69 (-70.8%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Yes 36.5¢889.2 shares
$80.03
−$244.81 (-75.4%)
Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Yes 19.3¢404.9 shares
$78.95
+$1.01 (+1.3%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Yes 43¢704.4 shares
$63.40
−$239.50 (-79.1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 32.5¢116.3 shares
$61.07
+$23.28 (+61.6%)
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Yes 20¢243 shares
$46.17
−$2.43 (-5.0%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$34.48
+$11.74 (+51.6%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
Yes 9.9¢109.1 shares
$33.81
+$23.01 (+213.0%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes 3.9¢923.6 shares
$33.25
−$2.79 (-7.7%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$32.92
+$10.17 (+44.7%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Yes 39.8¢419.3 shares
$31.45
−$135.27 (-81.1%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$29.78
+$7.03 (+30.9%)
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
No 12.8¢759.1 shares
$26.87
−$70.02 (-72.3%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
Yes 99.2¢21.1 shares
$20.70
−$0.20 (-1.0%)
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Yes 5.9¢45.6 shares
$18.71
+$16.03 (+597.0%)
Will Sian Astley win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Yes 13.6¢1.1K shares
$18.11
−$131.28 (-87.9%)
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?
No 3.6¢12.1K shares
$18.09
−$416.95 (-95.8%)
Will Juan Ayuso win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
No 89.1¢18 shares
$17.97
+$1.95 (+12.2%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?
Yes 14.3¢20 shares
$16.30
+$13.44 (+470.4%)
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 18.1¢57.5 shares
$14.66
+$4.25 (+40.9%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$14.11
−$8.64 (-38.0%)
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Yes 20¢243 shares
$12.27
−$36.33 (-74.8%)
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Yes 20¢243 shares
$11.30
−$37.30 (-76.8%)
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?
Yes 15.4¢155 shares
$10.91
−$12.91 (-54.2%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
Yes 3.2¢306 shares
$10.83
+$1.01 (+10.3%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 90.9¢11 shares
$10.80
+$0.81 (+8.1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes 12.3¢77 shares
$10.51
+$1.05 (+11.1%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
Yes 3.6¢269.3 shares
$9.70
−$0.12 (-1.2%)
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
No 36.8¢32 shares
$9.44
−$2.34 (-19.9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 45.0¢14.8 shares
$9.24
+$2.59 (+38.9%)
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$7.84
−$14.91 (-65.5%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 4.7¢70 shares
$7.24
+$3.95 (+120.2%)
Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
Yes 5.1¢55.3 shares
$6.34
+$3.54 (+126.2%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.7¢3.1K shares
$4.70
−$18.04 (-79.3%)
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 4.1¢345 shares
$4.66
−$9.42 (-66.9%)
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Yes 12¢30 shares
$4.05
+$0.45 (+12.5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
No 27.2¢13 shares
$3.95
+$0.42 (+11.8%)
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Yes 26.9¢50.9 shares
$3.72
−$9.97 (-72.8%)
Will Marlon Scott West win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Yes 0.4¢2.1K shares
$3.18
−$5.91 (-65.0%)
CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
Over 99¢6 shares
$3.05
−$2.93 (-49.0%)
CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 13.5 Total Corners
Under 99¢5 shares
$2.53
−$2.43 (-49.0%)
CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 12.5 Total Corners
Under 99¢5 shares
$2.53
−$2.43 (-49.0%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 10–15%?
Yes 14.3¢20 shares
$2.30
−$0.56 (-19.5%)
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
Yes 26¢21 shares
$1.79
−$3.68 (-67.3%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Yes 48.4¢3.6 shares
$1.77
+$0.05 (+3.0%)
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?
No 33.8¢88.1 shares
$1.37
−$28.42 (-95.4%)
Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?
Yes 0.7¢2.7K shares
$1.35
−$17.49 (-92.9%)
Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?
Yes 795 shares
$1.19
−$38.56 (-97.0%)
Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?
Yes 1.1¢1.9K shares
$0.95
−$19.98 (-95.5%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 5–10%?
Yes 14.3¢20 shares
$0.67
−$2.19 (-76.5%)
Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Yes 3.1¢233.5 shares
$0.58
−$6.65 (-91.9%)