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Seldon26
Joined January 2026
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Polymarket
Check on Polymarket
Total earnings
$26,348.48
1D
−$53.21
7D
−$35.30
30D
$161.77
90D
−$243.22
Total volume
$872.3K
Predictions
1,124
Positions value
$936.69
Performance
Performance over all time
1D
1W
1M
YTD
All
Trade
+$25.4K
LP
+$649.60
Maker
+$286.67
Yield
+$0.61
Positions
Activity
Comments
active
closed
Market
Avg → Now
Traded
To win
Value
Share
Will Twice release a song in 2026?
Yes 73.6¢
301.2 shares
Share
33.7¢
→
73.6¢
$101.51
$301.16
$221.50
+$119.99
(+118.2%)
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes 10¢
1.9K shares
Share
22.1¢
→
10¢
$410.99
$1.9K
$185.76
−$225.24
(-54.8%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Yes 82.2¢
116.6 shares
Share
40¢
→
82.2¢
$46.62
$116.55
$95.80
+$49.18
(+105.5%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?
No 86¢
82 shares
Share
30.6¢
→
86¢
$25.11
$81.96
$70.49
+$45.37
(+180.7%)
Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2027?
No 51¢
110.9 shares
Share
31¢
→
51¢
$34.36
$110.85
$56.53
+$22.17
(+64.5%)
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026?
No 68.3¢
79 shares
Share
39.6¢
→
68.3¢
$31.28
$79.00
$54.00
+$22.71
(+72.6%)
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027?
No 54.5¢
85.7 shares
Share
36¢
→
54.5¢
$30.84
$85.66
$46.68
+$15.85
(+51.4%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by December 31?
No 96.7¢
38.1 shares
Share
34¢
→
96.7¢
$12.96
$38.12
$36.86
+$23.90
(+184.4%)
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
No 57.0¢
59.2 shares
Share
39¢
→
57.0¢
$23.07
$59.16
$33.72
+$10.65
(+46.2%)
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
No 84¢
37.9 shares
Share
29.0¢
→
84¢
$10.98
$37.87
$31.81
+$20.83
(+189.7%)
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch?
No 62.5¢
37.5 shares
Share
49¢
→
62.5¢
$18.36
$37.47
$23.42
+$5.06
(+27.6%)
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
No 84.5¢
13.7 shares
Share
72¢
→
84.5¢
$9.86
$13.69
$11.57
+$1.71
(+17.4%)
Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026?
Yes 12.5¢
63.7 shares
Share
27.3¢
→
12.5¢
$17.40
$63.71
$7.96
−$9.43
(-54.2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 28.0¢
27 shares
Share
36¢
→
28.0¢
$9.73
$27.02
$7.57
−$2.16
(-22.2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 9.2¢
82.6 shares
Share
12.0¢
→
9.2¢
$9.92
$82.64
$7.56
−$2.36
(-23.7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 15.4¢
47.2 shares
Share
21.1¢
→
15.4¢
$9.95
$47.16
$7.26
−$2.69
(-27.0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 31.3¢
22.4 shares
Share
44.5¢
→
31.3¢
$9.97
$22.37
$6.99
−$2.98
(-29.9%)
Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?
Yes 11¢
42.7 shares
Share
39¢
→
11¢
$16.66
$42.72
$4.70
−$11.96
(-71.8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Yes 11.5¢
38.5 shares
Share
25¢
→
11.5¢
$9.62
$38.46
$4.42
−$5.19
(-54.0%)
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
Yes 5¢
87 shares
Share
11.4¢
→
5¢
$9.91
$86.95
$4.35
−$5.56
(-56.1%)
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?
Yes 6¢
70.7 shares
Share
32¢
→
6¢
$22.63
$70.71
$4.24
−$18.38
(-81.3%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Yes 11.5¢
26.3 shares
Share
37¢
→
11.5¢
$9.73
$26.31
$3.03
−$6.71
(-68.9%)
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
Yes 10.5¢
25 shares
Share
40¢
→
10.5¢
$10.00
$25.00
$2.63
−$7.38
(-73.8%)
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2027?
No 89.5¢
2.6 shares
Share
25¢
→
89.5¢
$0.66
$2.63
$2.35
+$1.70
(+258.0%)
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by December 31?
Yes 35.2¢
3.8 shares
Share
26.4¢
→
35.2¢
$1.01
$3.83
$1.35
+$0.34
(+33.3%)
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Yes 2.9¢
43 shares
Share
30¢
→
2.9¢
$12.90
$43.00
$1.23
−$11.67
(-90.5%)
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Yes 3.8¢
28.6 shares
Share
34.0¢
→
3.8¢
$9.71
$28.57
$1.07
−$8.64
(-89.0%)
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Yes 2.9¢
32.3 shares
Share
30¢
→
2.9¢
$9.68
$32.25
$0.95
−$8.72
(-90.2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Yes 6¢
14.9 shares
Share
66¢
→
6¢
$9.85
$14.92
$0.90
−$8.95
(-90.9%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
Yes 0¢
698.3 shares
Share
28.6¢
→
0¢
$199.99
$698.25
Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 0¢
71.4 shares
Share
13¢
→
0¢
$9.28
$71.42
Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 0¢
39.2 shares
Share
25.4¢
→
0¢
$9.96
$39.21
Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Yes 0¢
38.2 shares
Share
26.2¢
→
0¢
$10.00
$38.15
Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Yes 0¢
24.4 shares
Share
40¢
→
0¢
$9.76
$24.39
Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
No 0¢
50 shares
Share
19¢
→
0¢
$9.50
$50.00
Lost
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
No 0¢
439.5 shares
Share
35.0¢
→
0¢
$153.99
$439.52
Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Yes 0¢
52.6 shares
Share
18¢
→
0¢
$9.47
$52.63
Lost
NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?
Yes 0¢
6.5K shares
Share
20.2¢
→
0¢
$1.3K
$6.5K
Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?
No 0¢
255.5 shares
Share
24¢
→
0¢
$61.31
$255.47
Lost
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
No 0¢
272.1 shares
Share
44.1¢
→
0¢
$120.00
$272.10
Lost
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?
Yes 0¢
233.6 shares
Share
31¢
→
0¢
$72.41
$233.59
Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
Yes 0¢
45.5 shares
Share
21¢
→
0¢
$9.54
$45.45
Lost
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
Yes 0¢
373.5 shares
Share
30.9¢
→
0¢
$115.49
$373.45
Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
No 0¢
370.3 shares
Share
31.2¢
→
0¢
$115.50
$370.30
Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?
Yes 0¢
15.6 shares
Share
63.9¢
→
0¢
$9.98
$15.62
Lost
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
No 0¢
60 shares
Share
35¢
→
0¢
$21.00
$60.00
Lost
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
Yes 0¢
28.6 shares
Share
34.0¢
→
0¢
$9.71
$28.57
Lost
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
No 0¢
178.6 shares
Share
30.3¢
→
0¢
$54.10
$178.56
Lost
Will Matt Schultz advance from the AK-AL primary election?
Yes 0¢
176.9 shares
Share
42.4¢
→
0¢
$75.00
$176.88
Lost
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?
No 0¢
464.6 shares
Share
33.9¢
→
0¢
$157.50
$464.60
Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
No 0¢
32.3 shares
Share
30¢
→
0¢
$9.68
$32.25
Lost
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
No 0¢
31.2 shares
Share
32¢
→
0¢
$9.99
$31.23
Lost
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?
No 0¢
291.7 shares
Share
30¢
→
0¢
$87.50
$291.66
Lost
Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
Yes 0¢
25.6 shares
Share
38.0¢
→
0¢
$9.74
$25.64
Lost
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