risk-manager
Joined October 2024
Total earnings
$315,695.78
1D
−$127.12
7D
−$94.47
30D
−$4.6K
90D
−$23.6K
Total volume
$713.43M
Predictions
859
Positions value
$239.5K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade+$265.4K
LP+$35.0K
Maker+$14.1K
Yield+$2.6K
Taker+$106.62
Fees−$1.6K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No 50¢90.0K shares
50¢→79.0¢
$45.0K
$90.0K
$71.1K
+$26.1K (+58.1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No 80.7¢35.0K shares
80.7¢→88.3¢
$28.2K
$35.0K
$30.9K
+$2.7K (+9.5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 30.9¢111.3K shares
30.9¢→18.3¢
$34.4K
$111.3K
$20.3K
−$14.1K (-41.0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 50.0¢90.0K shares
50.0¢→20.9¢
$45.0K
$90.0K
$18.9K
−$26.1K (-58.1%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.8¢2.04M shares
0.8¢→0.9¢
$16.3K
$2.04M
$17.3K
+$1.0K (+6.2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No 81.9¢17.5K shares
81.9¢→85¢
$14.3K
$17.5K
$14.9K
+$545.05 (+3.8%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
No 83.7¢14.9K shares
83.7¢→87.5¢
$12.5K
$14.9K
$13.1K
+$560.29 (+4.5%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No 83.0¢10.0K shares
83.0¢→86.5¢
$8.3K
$10.0K
$8.7K
+$350.02 (+4.2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Yes 87.5¢6.5K shares
87.5¢→84¢
$5.7K
$6.5K
$5.5K
−$230.00 (-4.0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
No 84.4¢6.1K shares
84.4¢→85¢
$5.1K
$6.1K
$5.2K
+$35.13 (+0.7%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
No 88.8¢5.0K shares
88.8¢→97.3¢
$4.4K
$5.0K
$4.9K
+$422.50 (+9.5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
No 75.0¢4.5K shares
75.0¢→91.5¢
$3.4K
$4.5K
$4.1K
+$742.53 (+22.0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
No 57.5¢8.7K shares
57.5¢→45.5¢
$5.0K
$8.7K
$3.9K
−$1.0K (-20.9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Yes 8¢30.0K shares
8¢→7.5¢
$2.4K
$30.0K
$2.2K
−$150.00 (-6.2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 19.5¢5.0K shares
19.5¢→44.5¢
$974.47
$5.0K
$2.2K
+$1.3K (+128.3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
No 74.3¢3.0K shares
74.3¢→74¢
$2.2K
$3.0K
$2.2K
−$10.00 (-0.4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
No 62.4¢2.5K shares
62.4¢→61.5¢
$1.6K
$2.5K
$1.5K
−$22.50 (-1.4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
No 88¢1.5K shares
88¢→94.2¢
$1.3K
$1.5K
$1.4K
+$93.00 (+7.0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Yes 69.7¢2.0K shares
69.7¢→65.5¢
$1.4K
$2.0K
$1.3K
−$84.99 (-6.1%)
Trump out as President before 2027?
Yes 14.8¢19.2K shares
14.8¢→6.5¢
$2.8K
$19.2K
$1.2K
−$1.6K (-55.9%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes 0.1¢781.0K shares
0.1¢→0.1¢
$1.2K
$781.0K
$1.2K
−$19.53 (-1.6%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
No 84.3¢1.6K shares
84.3¢→66.5¢
$1.3K
$1.6K
$1.0K
−$280.04 (-21.1%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.6¢398.5K shares
0.6¢→0.3¢
$2.4K
$398.5K
$996.14
−$1.4K (-58.3%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢250.0K shares
0.4¢→0.3¢
$1.0K
$250.0K
$625.00
−$375.00 (-37.5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes 83¢1.0K shares
83¢→61.5¢
$830.00
$1.0K
$615.00
−$215.00 (-25.9%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No 45¢1.1K shares
45¢→45.5¢
$495.93
$1.1K
$501.44
+$5.51 (+1.1%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.6¢195.9K shares
0.6¢→0.3¢
$1.2K
$195.9K
$489.71
−$685.40 (-58.3%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Yes 8¢6.2K shares
8¢→7.5¢
$499.76
$6.2K
$468.53
−$31.24 (-6.3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
No 23¢1.5K shares
23¢→26.5¢
$345.00
$1.5K
$397.50
+$52.50 (+15.2%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Anthropic 67¢450 shares
67¢→86.5¢
$301.50
$450.00
$389.25
+$87.75 (+29.1%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢78.2K shares
0.4¢→0.4¢
$312.62
$78.2K
$351.78
+$39.16 (+12.5%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Yes 0.8¢45.0K shares
0.8¢→0.8¢
$360.00
$45.0K
$337.50
−$22.50 (-6.3%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes 0.2¢559.2K shares
0.2¢→0.1¢
$1.1K
$559.2K
$279.58
−$838.73 (-75.0%)
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Yes 0.8¢11.1K shares
0.8¢→0.9¢
$89.18
$11.1K
$105.90
+$16.72 (+18.7%)
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢30.0K shares
0.4¢→0.4¢
$107.25
$30.0K
$105.00
−$2.25 (-2.1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢38.5K shares
0.4¢→0.3¢
$154.05
$38.5K
$96.28
−$57.77 (-37.5%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes 20¢7.1K shares
20¢→1.4¢
$1.4K
$7.1K
$95.53
−$1.3K (-93.3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
No 80.0¢150 shares
80.0¢→58.5¢
$120.00
$150.00
$87.75
−$32.25 (-26.9%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Yes 15¢669 shares
15¢→11.5¢
$100.35
$669.03
$76.94
−$23.42 (-23.3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
No 73¢150 shares
73¢→49¢
$109.50
$150.00
$73.50
−$36.00 (-32.9%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢30.0K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$107.25
$30.0K
$45.00
−$62.25 (-58.0%)
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢30.0K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$107.25
$30.0K
$45.00
−$62.25 (-58.0%)
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢30.0K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$107.25
$30.0K
$45.00
−$62.25 (-58.0%)
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢30.0K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$107.25
$30.0K
$45.00
−$62.25 (-58.0%)
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.4¢30.0K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$107.25
$30.0K
$45.00
−$62.25 (-58.0%)
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Yes 0.6¢2.9K shares
0.6¢→0.9¢
$17.16
$2.9K
$24.31
+$7.15 (+41.7%)
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.4¢6.8K shares
0.4¢→0.1¢
$24.00
$6.8K
$10.20
−$13.80 (-57.5%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes 0.8¢882.7 shares
0.8¢→1.1¢
$7.02
$882.66
$9.27
+$2.25 (+32.0%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Yes 0.6¢686.2 shares
0.6¢→1.4¢
$4.12
$686.23
$9.26
+$5.15 (+125.0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.6¢755.1 shares
0.6¢→0.3¢
$4.48
$755.14
$1.89
−$2.59 (-57.8%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0.9¢51.3 shares
0.9¢→1.3¢
$0.48
$51.35
$0.64
+$0.16 (+33.2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 0.1¢2.70M shares
0.1¢→0¢
$2.7K
$2.70M
Lost
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?
Yes 1¢313 shares
1¢→0¢
$3.13
$313.03
Lost