Poligarch
Flex cardJoined June 2025
Total earnings
$216,478.48
1D
$143.47
7D
$4.8K
30D
$23.0K
90D
$82.6K
Total volume
$25.34M
Predictions
40,150
Positions value
$53.5K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade+$182.3K
LP+$8.9K
Maker+$25.3K
Yield+$0.00
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
No 71.2¢6.3K shares
71.2¢→100.0¢
$4.5K
$6.3K
$6.3K
+$1.8K (+40.4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
No 52.5¢2.8K shares
52.5¢→78.1¢
$1.5K
$2.8K
$2.2K
+$715.35 (+48.8%)
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
No 46.4¢2.7K shares
46.4¢→70.5¢
$1.3K
$2.7K
$1.9K
+$653.16 (+51.8%)
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
Yes 54.8¢2.0K shares
54.8¢→94.6¢
$1.1K
$2.0K
$1.9K
+$801.86 (+72.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?
No 62.9¢1.7K shares
62.9¢→100.0¢
$1.1K
$1.7K
$1.7K
+$646.97 (+58.8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
No 76.6¢1.6K shares
76.6¢→82¢
$1.2K
$1.6K
$1.3K
+$85.71 (+7.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?
No 45.5¢1.1K shares
45.5¢→100.0¢
$505.76
$1.1K
$1.1K
+$604.81 (+119.6%)
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
No 58.8¢1.2K shares
58.8¢→73¢
$689.07
$1.2K
$855.50
+$166.43 (+24.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?
Yes 30.9¢844.1 shares
30.9¢→100.0¢
$261.04
$844.06
$843.64
+$582.60 (+223.2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 25?
Yes 22¢755.2 shares
22¢→100.0¢
$166.15
$755.19
$754.81
+$588.66 (+354.3%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
No 72.4¢805.1 shares
72.4¢→93.5¢
$583.13
$805.07
$752.74
+$169.61 (+29.1%)
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
Yes 53.9¢2.5K shares
53.9¢→29.5¢
$1.4K
$2.5K
$742.47
−$613.18 (-45.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?
Yes 47.0¢725.8 shares
47.0¢→100.0¢
$341.01
$725.77
$725.41
+$384.40 (+112.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?
No 56.2¢701 shares
56.2¢→100.0¢
$393.72
$700.98
$700.63
+$306.91 (+78.0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 25?
Yes 59¢684.7 shares
59¢→100.0¢
$404.01
$684.66
$684.32
+$280.31 (+69.4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
No 61.1¢709.3 shares
61.1¢→91.0¢
$433.73
$709.31
$645.82
+$212.10 (+48.9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
Yes 47.8¢2.9K shares
47.8¢→21.9¢
$1.4K
$2.9K
$630.68
−$746.47 (-54.2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?
Yes 59.2¢845 shares
59.2¢→70¢
$500.36
$844.95
$591.47
+$91.10 (+18.2%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 59.6¢703.3 shares
59.6¢→77.6¢
$419.13
$703.29
$546.10
+$126.97 (+30.3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 25?
No 54.3¢521.1 shares
54.3¢→100.0¢
$283.09
$521.11
$520.85
+$237.76 (+84.0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 25?
No 63.1¢512.4 shares
63.1¢→100.0¢
$323.32
$512.43
$512.17
+$188.85 (+58.4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
No 88.8¢497.6 shares
88.8¢→99.5¢
$441.85
$497.62
$495.13
+$53.28 (+12.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 25?
No 64.7¢410.8 shares
64.7¢→100.0¢
$265.66
$410.79
$410.59
+$144.93 (+54.6%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Yes 66.1¢554.9 shares
66.1¢→73.5¢
$366.67
$554.89
$407.84
+$41.17 (+11.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?
No 85.3¢384.6 shares
85.3¢→99.1¢
$328.16
$384.60
$381.14
+$52.98 (+16.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?
Yes 36.2¢376.6 shares
36.2¢→100.0¢
$136.51
$376.60
$376.41
+$239.90 (+175.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?
Yes 62.2¢499.1 shares
62.2¢→73.5¢
$310.46
$499.06
$366.81
+$56.34 (+18.1%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
Yes 36.7¢378.8 shares
36.7¢→92.7¢
$139.17
$378.80
$350.96
+$211.79 (+152.2%)
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?
No 49.8¢389.1 shares
49.8¢→90¢
$193.93
$389.11
$350.20
+$156.27 (+80.6%)
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?
No 84.0¢358.4 shares
84.0¢→95.9¢
$301.26
$358.44
$343.74
+$42.48 (+14.1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 25?
No 68.5¢338.8 shares
68.5¢→100.0¢
$231.99
$338.77
$338.60
+$106.61 (+46.0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Yes 74.0¢417.9 shares
74.0¢→77.5¢
$309.42
$417.94
$323.91
+$14.49 (+4.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 25?
No 88.3¢320.6 shares
88.3¢→100.0¢
$282.95
$320.57
$320.41
+$37.46 (+13.2%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?
Yes 47.5¢335 shares
47.5¢→95.2¢
$159.20
$335.05
$318.97
+$159.77 (+100.4%)
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Yes 41.0¢1.1K shares
41.0¢→27¢
$462.36
$1.1K
$304.05
−$158.31 (-34.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 25?
No 60.7¢285.2 shares
60.7¢→100.0¢
$172.96
$285.17
$285.03
+$112.07 (+64.8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Yes 21.6¢1.5K shares
21.6¢→18¢
$330.25
$1.5K
$274.69
−$55.56 (-16.8%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 25?
No 88.9¢271.4 shares
88.9¢→100.0¢
$241.27
$271.42
$271.28
+$30.02 (+12.4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 26?
No 79.3¢270.2 shares
79.3¢→100.0¢
$214.29
$270.18
$270.04
+$55.75 (+26.0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 26?
Yes 70.9¢264.8 shares
70.9¢→99.5¢
$187.67
$264.81
$263.48
+$75.81 (+40.4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?
No 37.2¢820.7 shares
37.2¢→30¢
$305.24
$820.70
$246.21
−$59.03 (-19.3%)
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?
No 86.5¢233.2 shares
86.5¢→99.1¢
$201.62
$233.17
$231.07
+$29.45 (+14.6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?
No 90.1¢229.3 shares
90.1¢→100.0¢
$206.53
$229.27
$229.15
+$22.62 (+11.0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
No 68.3¢235.9 shares
68.3¢→92.3¢
$160.98
$235.85
$217.81
+$56.82 (+35.3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 25?
Yes 68.1¢216.7 shares
68.1¢→100.0¢
$147.54
$216.69
$216.58
+$69.03 (+46.8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 26?
No 82.3¢213.6 shares
82.3¢→100.0¢
$175.70
$213.57
$213.46
+$37.76 (+21.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 26?
No 85.5¢224.2 shares
85.5¢→94¢
$191.79
$224.16
$210.71
+$18.92 (+9.9%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 25?
No 82.7¢200.1 shares
82.7¢→100.0¢
$165.55
$200.07
$199.97
+$34.42 (+20.8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?
No 87.5¢195.2 shares
87.5¢→100.0¢
$170.69
$195.18
$195.08
+$24.39 (+14.3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?
No 69.7¢230.3 shares
69.7¢→82¢
$160.45
$230.26
$188.82
+$28.36 (+17.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 25?
No 83.0¢185.7 shares
83.0¢→100.0¢
$154.19
$185.69
$185.60
+$31.40 (+20.4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 25?
Yes 47.0¢184.5 shares
47.0¢→100.0¢
$86.76
$184.52
$184.42
+$97.66 (+112.6%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
Yes 13.3¢302.8 shares
13.3¢→58.3¢
$40.31
$302.77
$176.36
+$136.05 (+337.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 25?
No 53.5¢176 shares
53.5¢→100.0¢
$94.22
$175.96
$175.87
+$81.65 (+86.7%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
No 39.0¢765.7 shares
39.0¢→22.4¢
$298.43
$765.67
$171.13
−$127.31 (-42.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 26?
No 80.0¢182.9 shares
80.0¢→93.5¢
$146.27
$182.94
$171.05
+$24.77 (+16.9%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 25?
No 86.1¢170 shares
86.1¢→100.0¢
$146.33
$169.95
$169.87
+$23.53 (+16.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 26?
Yes 69.9¢218.1 shares
69.9¢→77.5¢
$152.46
$218.09
$169.02
+$16.56 (+10.9%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 25?
Yes 55.1¢162.1 shares
55.1¢→100.0¢
$89.27
$162.13
$162.05
+$72.78 (+81.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 25?
No 90.8¢161.9 shares
90.8¢→100.0¢
$147.02
$161.88
$161.80
+$14.78 (+10.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?
No 75.7¢201.3 shares
75.7¢→79.5¢
$152.45
$201.31
$160.04
+$7.60 (+5.0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 25?
No 74.5¢155.1 shares
74.5¢→100.0¢
$115.52
$155.15
$155.07
+$39.55 (+34.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 25?
Yes 31.2¢147.8 shares
31.2¢→100.0¢
$46.06
$147.79
$147.72
+$101.65 (+220.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 26?
No 81.8¢169.8 shares
81.8¢→87¢
$138.92
$169.79
$147.71
+$8.79 (+6.3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 25?
Yes 66.0¢145.7 shares
66.0¢→100.0¢
$96.13
$145.69
$145.62
+$49.49 (+51.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?
No 87.8¢155.2 shares
87.8¢→92.5¢
$136.31
$155.15
$143.52
+$7.20 (+5.3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?
No 35.6¢536.3 shares
35.6¢→26.5¢
$190.89
$536.28
$142.11
−$48.78 (-25.6%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
No 29.4¢529.9 shares
29.4¢→26.5¢
$155.92
$529.89
$140.42
−$15.50 (-9.9%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 25?
No 55.6¢133.5 shares
55.6¢→100.0¢
$74.24
$133.52
$133.45
+$59.21 (+79.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?
No 88.8¢130.5 shares
88.8¢→100.0¢
$115.92
$130.53
$130.47
+$14.55 (+12.6%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
No 73.7¢310 shares
73.7¢→41.8¢
$228.43
$310.02
$129.43
−$99.00 (-43.3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 25?
Yes 53.9¢129 shares
53.9¢→100.0¢
$69.58
$129.05
$128.98
+$59.41 (+85.4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
No 75.6¢135.1 shares
75.6¢→94.8¢
$102.19
$135.07
$128.11
+$25.92 (+25.4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 25?
No 89.5¢128.1 shares
89.5¢→100.0¢
$114.72
$128.11
$128.05
+$13.33 (+11.6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 25?
No 85.0¢124.3 shares
85.0¢→100.0¢
$105.66
$124.32
$124.26
+$18.60 (+17.6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 25?
No 58.8¢124.3 shares
58.8¢→100.0¢
$73.12
$124.32
$124.26
+$51.14 (+69.9%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 25?
No 43.4¢124.2 shares
43.4¢→100.0¢
$53.92
$124.17
$124.11
+$70.19 (+130.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 25?
No 79.1¢123 shares
79.1¢→100.0¢
$97.30
$123.04
$122.98
+$25.68 (+26.4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 25?
No 79.3¢122.1 shares
79.3¢→100.0¢
$96.78
$122.09
$122.03
+$25.24 (+26.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 26?
No 78.3¢152.7 shares
78.3¢→77.5¢
$119.66
$152.73
$118.36
−$1.30 (-1.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 25?
No 87.6¢117.9 shares
87.6¢→100.0¢
$103.28
$117.92
$117.86
+$14.58 (+14.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or below on July 26?
No 84.8¢122 shares
84.8¢→93¢
$103.40
$121.99
$113.45
+$10.05 (+9.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 26?
No 89.3¢130.8 shares
89.3¢→86.5¢
$116.82
$130.79
$113.07
−$3.75 (-3.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 26?
No 56.4¢162.3 shares
56.4¢→69.0¢
$91.51
$162.26
$111.95
+$20.43 (+22.3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 26?
No 81.7¢131.3 shares
81.7¢→85¢
$107.35
$131.33
$111.63
+$4.27 (+4.0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?
No 71.7¢129 shares
71.7¢→85.5¢
$92.55
$129.01
$110.30
+$17.75 (+19.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?
No 90.7¢116 shares
90.7¢→94.5¢
$105.20
$115.96
$109.59
+$4.38 (+4.2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on July 26?
No 78.6¢128.2 shares
78.6¢→85.5¢
$100.77
$128.17
$109.59
+$8.82 (+8.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?
No 83.1¢115.9 shares
83.1¢→94.5¢
$96.33
$115.86
$109.49
+$13.16 (+13.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 25?
Yes 47.8¢109.5 shares
47.8¢→100.0¢
$52.33
$109.50
$109.45
+$57.12 (+109.2%)
Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Netflix show this week?
Yes 76.6¢125 shares
76.6¢→85.5¢
$95.75
$125.00
$106.88
+$11.13 (+11.6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 26?
No 77.6¢106.5 shares
77.6¢→100.0¢
$82.69
$106.50
$106.45
+$23.76 (+28.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 26?
No 83.0¢159.9 shares
83.0¢→65.5¢
$132.80
$159.94
$104.76
−$28.04 (-21.1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 25?
Yes 26.8¢101.8 shares
26.8¢→100.0¢
$27.29
$101.77
$101.72
+$74.43 (+272.7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 26?
Yes 51.3¢118.6 shares
51.3¢→85.5¢
$60.80
$118.58
$101.39
+$40.59 (+66.8%)
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
No 56.9¢1.9K shares
56.9¢→5.4¢
$1.1K
$1.9K
$101.33
−$966.55 (-90.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 26?
No 83.2¢109.9 shares
83.2¢→91.5¢
$91.48
$109.93
$100.59
+$9.11 (+10.0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 25?
No 51.6¢99.7 shares
51.6¢→100.0¢
$51.51
$99.71
$99.66
+$48.15 (+93.5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 25?
Yes 50.2¢99.3 shares
50.2¢→100.0¢
$49.82
$99.29
$99.24
+$49.41 (+99.2%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
No 86¢100 shares
86¢→97.0¢
$86.00
$100.00
$97.05
+$11.05 (+12.8%)