Joined June 2025
Total earnings
$89,236.94
1D
$830.01
7D
$4.9K
30D
$11.3K
90D
$44.7K
Total volume
$11.05M
Predictions
3,540
Positions value
$84.4K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade+$81.4K
LP+$10.4K
Maker+$1.2K
Yield+$54.87
Taker+$203.43
Fees−$4.3K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
No 81¢3.5K shares
81¢→95.3¢
$2.8K
$3.5K
$3.3K
+$500.64 (+17.7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 87.9¢3.5K shares
87.9¢→78.5¢
$3.1K
$3.5K
$2.8K
−$327.83 (-10.7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No 71.8¢3.0K shares
71.8¢→90.5¢
$2.2K
$3.0K
$2.7K
+$560.00 (+26.0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31?
No 65.3¢3.0K shares
65.3¢→76.5¢
$2.0K
$3.0K
$2.3K
+$337.19 (+17.2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No 57.7¢3.0K shares
57.7¢→76.5¢
$1.7K
$3.0K
$2.3K
+$564.90 (+32.7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes 52.7¢4.0K shares
52.7¢→55.5¢
$2.1K
$4.0K
$2.2K
+$110.00 (+5.2%)
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
No 51.1¢3.5K shares
51.1¢→58.5¢
$1.8K
$3.5K
$2.0K
+$255.47 (+14.4%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
Yes 89.0¢2.0K shares
89.0¢→99.8¢
$1.8K
$2.0K
$2.0K
+$215.95 (+12.1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 87.5¢2.0K shares
87.5¢→99.3¢
$1.8K
$2.0K
$2.0K
+$235.00 (+13.4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 57.8¢2.7K shares
57.8¢→62.5¢
$1.6K
$2.7K
$1.7K
+$128.52 (+8.1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
No 75¢2.0K shares
75¢→81.5¢
$1.5K
$2.0K
$1.6K
+$129.80 (+8.7%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
No 88¢1.5K shares
88¢→93.5¢
$1.3K
$1.5K
$1.4K
+$82.50 (+6.3%)
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
No 84¢1.5K shares
84¢→91¢
$1.3K
$1.5K
$1.4K
+$105.00 (+8.3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No 89.0¢1.5K shares
89.0¢→84.5¢
$1.3K
$1.5K
$1.3K
−$67.50 (-5.1%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
No 51.7¢2.0K shares
51.7¢→60.5¢
$1.0K
$2.0K
$1.2K
+$175.37 (+16.9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Yes 54.1¢2.0K shares
54.1¢→56.5¢
$1.1K
$2.0K
$1.1K
+$47.66 (+4.4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No 65.0¢1.6K shares
65.0¢→67.5¢
$1.1K
$1.6K
$1.1K
+$41.04 (+3.8%)
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
Yes 99.6¢1.1K shares
99.6¢→99.7¢
$1.1K
$1.1K
$1.1K
+$0.95 (+0.1%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Yes 78.1¢1.0K shares
78.1¢→99.6¢
$781.44
$1.0K
$996.00
+$214.56 (+27.5%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
No 42.1¢1.0K shares
42.1¢→97.9¢
$421.68
$1.0K
$979.37
+$557.69 (+132.3%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
Yes 94¢1.0K shares
94¢→97.8¢
$940.00
$1.0K
$977.50
+$37.50 (+4.0%)
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?
Yes 93.8¢1.0K shares
93.8¢→97.5¢
$938.40
$1.0K
$975.50
+$37.10 (+4.0%)
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?
Yes 85.3¢1.0K shares
85.3¢→97.4¢
$853.06
$1.0K
$974.00
+$120.94 (+14.2%)
Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?
No 86.8¢1.0K shares
86.8¢→97.2¢
$867.98
$1.0K
$972.00
+$104.02 (+12.0%)
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?
No 92¢1.0K shares
92¢→97.0¢
$920.00
$1.0K
$969.50
+$49.50 (+5.4%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
No 60.3¢1.0K shares
60.3¢→96.2¢
$603.54
$1.0K
$961.82
+$358.28 (+59.4%)
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
No 94¢1.0K shares
94¢→95.5¢
$940.00
$1.0K
$955.00
+$15.00 (+1.6%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?
Yes 94.6¢1.0K shares
94.6¢→95.5¢
$945.62
$1.0K
$955.00
+$9.38 (+1.0%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
No 82.7¢1.0K shares
82.7¢→94.5¢
$826.69
$1.0K
$945.03
+$118.34 (+14.3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
No 77.0¢1.0K shares
77.0¢→93.5¢
$769.85
$1.0K
$935.00
+$165.15 (+21.5%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
No 57.7¢1.0K shares
57.7¢→89¢
$576.83
$1.0K
$890.01
+$313.18 (+54.3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes 52.9¢2.0K shares
52.9¢→43.5¢
$1.1K
$2.0K
$870.04
−$188.10 (-17.8%)
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
No 55.4¢1.0K shares
55.4¢→87¢
$554.26
$1.0K
$870.00
+$315.74 (+57.0%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
No 43.0¢2.0K shares
43.0¢→43.5¢
$859.92
$2.0K
$869.96
+$10.04 (+1.2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
No 86.8¢770 shares
86.8¢→99.3¢
$668.50
$770.00
$764.23
+$95.73 (+14.3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
No 68¢1,000 shares
68¢→73.5¢
$679.99
$999.99
$734.99
+$55.00 (+8.1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Yes 35.7¢2.1K shares
35.7¢→35.5¢
$735.64
$2.1K
$730.94
−$4.70 (-0.6%)
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
No 82.4¢800 shares
82.4¢→90.5¢
$659.50
$800.00
$724.00
+$64.50 (+9.8%)
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
No 79.6¢750.6 shares
79.6¢→92¢
$597.85
$750.61
$690.56
+$92.72 (+15.5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No 80.8¢750 shares
80.8¢→88.5¢
$606.00
$750.00
$663.75
+$57.75 (+9.5%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
No 74.7¢750.2 shares
74.7¢→84.5¢
$560.53
$750.19
$633.91
+$73.38 (+13.1%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
No 77¢750 shares
77¢→84¢
$577.50
$750.00
$630.00
+$52.50 (+9.1%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
No 81.4¢750 shares
81.4¢→82.5¢
$610.36
$750.00
$618.75
+$8.39 (+1.4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
No 70¢999.5 shares
70¢→61.5¢
$699.68
$999.54
$614.72
−$84.96 (-12.1%)
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in July?
Yes 64.8¢750 shares
64.8¢→81¢
$485.72
$750.00
$607.50
+$121.78 (+25.1%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
No 72.9¢749.5 shares
72.9¢→79¢
$546.34
$749.50
$592.11
+$45.77 (+8.4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing 69.3¢750 shares
69.3¢→78¢
$519.52
$750.01
$585.01
+$65.48 (+12.6%)
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?
No 80.1¢750 shares
80.1¢→78¢
$600.50
$750.00
$585.00
−$15.50 (-2.6%)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Yes 62.4¢1.0K shares
62.4¢→58.5¢
$623.50
$1.0K
$585.00
−$38.50 (-6.2%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Yes 60.2¢999.6 shares
60.2¢→58.5¢
$601.75
$999.60
$584.77
−$16.98 (-2.8%)
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
Yes 62.2¢750 shares
62.2¢→76.5¢
$466.87
$750.00
$573.75
+$106.88 (+22.9%)
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Yes 68.9¢917.5 shares
68.9¢→62¢
$632.53
$917.46
$568.82
−$63.70 (-10.1%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
Yes 74.8¢585.9 shares
74.8¢→97¢
$438.11
$585.90
$568.32
+$130.22 (+29.7%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
No 63.8¢1,000 shares
63.8¢→56.0¢
$638.07
$999.99
$560.00
−$78.08 (-12.2%)
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?
Yes 71¢750 shares
71¢→71.0¢
$532.50
$750.00
$532.13
−$0.38 (-0.1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes 69¢750 shares
69¢→70¢
$517.55
$750.00
$525.00
+$7.45 (+1.4%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Yes 41.6¢1.0K shares
41.6¢→51.5¢
$416.23
$1.0K
$515.26
+$99.03 (+23.8%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
No 59.5¢700.3 shares
59.5¢→71.4¢
$416.89
$700.30
$499.66
+$82.77 (+19.9%)
Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga
Joshua 92¢500 shares
92¢→99.5¢
$460.00
$500.00
$497.50
+$37.50 (+8.2%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
No 89¢500 shares
89¢→99¢
$445.00
$500.00
$495.00
+$50.00 (+11.2%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
Yes 73.8¢500 shares
73.8¢→98.7¢
$368.98
$500.00
$493.50
+$124.52 (+33.7%)
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Yes 44.8¢1.0K shares
44.8¢→49¢
$448.48
$1.0K
$490.04
+$41.56 (+9.3%)
ECB rate cut in 2026?
No 46.1¢541 shares
46.1¢→87.5¢
$249.67
$541.03
$473.40
+$223.73 (+89.6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
No 90.0¢500 shares
90.0¢→93.5¢
$450.01
$500.01
$467.51
+$17.50 (+3.9%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 65.5¢600.3 shares
65.5¢→76.5¢
$393.49
$600.32
$459.24
+$65.75 (+16.7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes 28.6¢856 shares
28.6¢→53.5¢
$244.76
$856.00
$457.96
+$213.20 (+87.1%)
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
No 87.1¢500 shares
87.1¢→91.5¢
$435.66
$500.00
$457.50
+$21.84 (+5.0%)
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
Yes 90¢475.3 shares
90¢→94.7¢
$427.79
$475.32
$450.13
+$22.34 (+5.2%)
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
No 56.9¢750 shares
56.9¢→59.5¢
$426.65
$750.01
$446.25
+$19.60 (+4.6%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Yes 67¢750 shares
67¢→59¢
$502.56
$750.00
$442.50
−$60.06 (-12.0%)
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?
No 73.8¢500 shares
73.8¢→88.5¢
$368.95
$500.00
$442.50
+$73.55 (+19.9%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
No 74¢495 shares
74¢→88.5¢
$366.30
$495.00
$438.08
+$71.77 (+19.6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Yes 44.7¢755 shares
44.7¢→56.5¢
$337.49
$754.99
$426.49
+$89.00 (+26.4%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
No 52.8¢500.9 shares
52.8¢→83.5¢
$264.55
$500.90
$418.25
+$153.70 (+58.1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes 16¢500 shares
16¢→82.0¢
$80.00
$500.00
$409.75
+$329.75 (+412.2%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 26.3¢1.0K shares
26.3¢→40.9¢
$263.00
$1.0K
$409.40
+$146.40 (+55.7%)
Will Rhea Seehorn – “Pluribus” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?
Yes 72.0¢500.3 shares
72.0¢→80.5¢
$360.50
$500.30
$402.74
+$42.24 (+11.7%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
No 59¢500 shares
59¢→78.5¢
$295.00
$500.00
$392.50
+$97.50 (+33.1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
No 73.6¢500 shares
73.6¢→78¢
$368.12
$500.00
$390.00
+$21.88 (+5.9%)
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 50.2¢499.7 shares
50.2¢→78¢
$251.10
$499.71
$389.78
+$138.68 (+55.2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Yes 81¢500 shares
81¢→77.5¢
$404.99
$499.99
$387.49
−$17.50 (-4.3%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Yes 54¢750 shares
54¢→51¢
$405.00
$750.00
$382.50
−$22.50 (-5.6%)
Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by July 31?
No 83.6¢400 shares
83.6¢→90.5¢
$334.34
$400.00
$362.00
+$27.66 (+8.3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes 72.1¢856.2 shares
72.1¢→40.5¢
$617.57
$856.16
$346.74
−$270.83 (-43.9%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
Yes 74.3¢400 shares
74.3¢→85.8¢
$297.35
$400.00
$343.00
+$45.65 (+15.4%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
No 59.3¢500 shares
59.3¢→67.5¢
$296.58
$499.98
$337.49
+$40.91 (+13.8%)
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
No 77.5¢500 shares
77.5¢→65¢
$387.51
$500.01
$325.01
−$62.50 (-16.1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Yes 6.7¢500 shares
6.7¢→63.5¢
$33.33
$500.00
$317.50
+$284.17 (+852.5%)
Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
Yes 20¢505 shares
20¢→60.5¢
$101.00
$505.00
$305.53
+$204.52 (+202.5%)
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
No 62.6¢400 shares
62.6¢→75.5¢
$250.39
$400.00
$302.00
+$51.61 (+20.6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes 26.2¢1.3K shares
26.2¢→23.6¢
$326.96
$1.3K
$295.63
−$31.34 (-9.6%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 60¢666.7 shares
60¢→42.9¢
$400.00
$666.67
$285.67
−$114.33 (-28.6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes 21.4¢1.0K shares
21.4¢→27.0¢
$214.02
$1.0K
$269.52
+$55.50 (+25.9%)
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
No 81¢361.2 shares
81¢→73.5¢
$292.60
$361.24
$265.51
−$27.09 (-9.3%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Yes 12.4¢1,000 shares
12.4¢→26.5¢
$124.27
$999.99
$265.00
+$140.72 (+113.2%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 28.2¢1.0K shares
28.2¢→25.8¢
$282.49
$1.0K
$258.01
−$24.47 (-8.7%)
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Yes 49¢441.5 shares
49¢→57.0¢
$216.34
$441.50
$251.61
+$35.28 (+16.3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes 36¢750.1 shares
36¢→33.5¢
$270.02
$750.05
$251.27
−$18.75 (-6.9%)
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
Yes 12.7¢245 shares
12.7¢→100¢
$31.19
$244.99
Won
$244.99
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Yes 32.6¢750 shares
32.6¢→32.5¢
$244.27
$750.00
$243.75
−$0.52 (-0.2%)