
DerDon
Flex cardJoined February 2025
Total earnings
$110,371.36
1D
$5.3K
7D
$7.8K
30D
$16.5K
90D
$34.4K
Total volume
$11.82M
Predictions
3,436
Positions value
$79.8K
PerformancePerformance over all time
Trade+$97.8K
LP+$11.8K
Maker+$1.5K
Yield+$97.16
Taker+$22.57

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
No 55.0¢10.0K shares
55.0¢→69.5¢
$5.5K
$10.0K
$6.9K
+$1.4K (+26.3%)

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Yes 20.5¢31.9K shares
20.5¢→21.4¢
$6.5K
$31.9K
$6.8K
+$288.69 (+4.4%)

Iran leadership change by July 31?
No 94.7¢6.9K shares
94.7¢→98.0¢
$6.5K
$6.9K
$6.8K
+$229.14 (+3.5%)

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Yes 42.9¢16.8K shares
42.9¢→39.5¢
$7.2K
$16.8K
$6.6K
−$564.70 (-7.9%)

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
No 71.3¢7.0K shares
71.3¢→73.5¢
$5.0K
$7.0K
$5.1K
+$152.65 (+3.1%)

Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
No 57.5¢7.2K shares
57.5¢→66.5¢
$4.1K
$7.2K
$4.8K
+$648.98 (+15.7%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
No 37.7¢4.3K shares
37.7¢→98.4¢
$1.6K
$4.3K
$4.2K
+$2.6K (+160.9%)

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
No 56.4¢4.3K shares
56.4¢→77.5¢
$2.4K
$4.3K
$3.3K
+$903.99 (+37.5%)

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Yes 53.7¢6.0K shares
53.7¢→53.5¢
$3.2K
$6.0K
$3.2K
−$10.00 (-0.3%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No 50¢2.8K shares
50¢→99.3¢
$1.4K
$2.8K
$2.8K
+$1.4K (+98.5%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
No 54.6¢2.6K shares
54.6¢→99.5¢
$1.4K
$2.6K
$2.6K
+$1.2K (+82.3%)

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?
Yes 85¢2.9K shares
85¢→87.5¢
$2.5K
$2.9K
$2.6K
+$73.57 (+2.9%)

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?
No 98.3¢2.4K shares
98.3¢→98¢
$2.3K
$2.4K
$2.3K
−$6.27 (-0.3%)

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
No 45.4¢2.7K shares
45.4¢→84¢
$1.2K
$2.7K
$2.3K
+$1.1K (+84.9%)

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
No 95.9¢2.0K shares
95.9¢→99.4¢
$1.9K
$2.0K
$2.0K
+$71.83 (+3.7%)
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?
Yes 73.3¢2.4K shares
73.3¢→77¢
$1.8K
$2.4K
$1.9K
+$90.62 (+5.1%)

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Yes 5.3¢30.0K shares
5.3¢→4.7¢
$1.6K
$30.0K
$1.4K
−$189.99 (-11.9%)

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
No 8.7¢20.7K shares
8.7¢→6.5¢
$1.8K
$20.7K
$1.3K
−$449.71 (-25.0%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
No 67.8¢1.5K shares
67.8¢→80.5¢
$1.0K
$1.5K
$1.2K
+$191.56 (+18.7%)

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
No 80.4¢1.2K shares
80.4¢→85.5¢
$994.94
$1.2K
$1.1K
+$63.43 (+6.4%)

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
No 84¢1.0K shares
84¢→93.5¢
$841.44
$1.0K
$936.61
+$95.16 (+11.3%)

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
No 56.0¢1,000 shares
56.0¢→93.5¢
$559.99
$999.99
$934.99
+$375.00 (+67.0%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
No 53¢883.2 shares
53¢→95¢
$468.09
$883.19
$839.03
+$370.94 (+79.2%)

Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?
No 85.4¢799.7 shares
85.4¢→73¢
$682.72
$799.67
$583.76
−$98.96 (-14.5%)
Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?
No 91.9¢550 shares
91.9¢→96.9¢
$505.50
$550.00
$532.68
+$27.18 (+5.4%)

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
No 97.0¢425.8 shares
97.0¢→98.9¢
$413.23
$425.80
$420.90
+$7.67 (+1.9%)

Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Yes 15.4¢2.8K shares
15.4¢→14.3¢
$430.40
$2.8K
$401.72
−$28.68 (-6.7%)

Will Warsh say "President" during July Press Conference?
Yes 42.9¢913.5 shares
42.9¢→43.5¢
$392.10
$913.55
$397.39
+$5.29 (+1.3%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
Yes 7.9¢4.5K shares
7.9¢→8.6¢
$355.07
$4.5K
$384.92
+$29.85 (+8.4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
No 70¢500 shares
70¢→69.5¢
$350.00
$500.00
$347.45
−$2.55 (-0.7%)

Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference?
Yes 17.7¢1.6K shares
17.7¢→19.5¢
$287.87
$1.6K
$316.61
+$28.75 (+10.0%)

Fed rate hike in 2026?
No 37¢1.0K shares
37¢→29.5¢
$370.00
$1.0K
$295.00
−$75.00 (-20.3%)
Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 58.1¢445.6 shares
58.1¢→61.5¢
$258.72
$445.63
$274.06
+$15.34 (+5.9%)

Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?
No 85¢317.3 shares
85¢→86¢
$269.70
$317.30
$272.88
+$3.17 (+1.2%)

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Yes 50¢447.2 shares
50¢→56.5¢
$223.60
$447.20
$252.62
+$29.02 (+13.0%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
No 21¢753.1 shares
21¢→33.5¢
$158.14
$753.06
$252.28
+$94.13 (+59.5%)

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
No 89.9¢219.9 shares
89.9¢→94.3¢
$197.66
$219.87
$207.22
+$9.56 (+4.8%)

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
No 45.0¢678.2 shares
45.0¢→29.5¢
$305.31
$678.21
$200.07
−$105.23 (-34.5%)

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
No 50¢200 shares
50¢→88.5¢
$100.00
$200.00
$177.00
+$77.00 (+77.0%)
Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 52.0¢260 shares
52.0¢→62.5¢
$135.19
$259.99
$162.49
+$27.30 (+20.2%)
Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 29.4¢396.8 shares
29.4¢→38.5¢
$116.80
$396.78
$152.76
+$35.96 (+30.8%)

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
No 70¢167 shares
70¢→79.5¢
$116.90
$167.00
$132.77
+$15.86 (+13.6%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
No 54¢207 shares
54¢→63.2¢
$111.78
$207.00
$130.91
+$19.13 (+17.1%)

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
No 12¢184.8 shares
12¢→68¢
$22.18
$184.80
$125.66
+$103.49 (+466.7%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes 77¢300 shares
77¢→40.5¢
$230.99
$299.99
$121.50
−$109.50 (-47.4%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?
No 61.8¢157 shares
61.8¢→72.5¢
$97.01
$156.99
$113.81
+$16.81 (+17.3%)

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
No 39¢200 shares
39¢→56.5¢
$78.00
$200.00
$112.98
+$34.98 (+44.8%)

Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
No 45.4¢217.2 shares
45.4¢→49¢
$98.49
$217.17
$106.41
+$7.92 (+8.0%)

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Yes 30.1¢310 shares
30.1¢→34¢
$93.30
$309.99
$105.40
+$12.10 (+13.0%)

Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference?
No 44.2¢193.1 shares
44.2¢→52¢
$85.34
$193.14
$100.43
+$15.09 (+17.7%)
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
Yes 71¢100 shares
71¢→99.7¢
$71.00
$100.00
$99.70
+$28.70 (+40.4%)

Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
Yes 39¢216.4 shares
39¢→39.5¢
$84.41
$216.43
$85.49
+$1.08 (+1.3%)

Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?
Yes 17¢448.6 shares
17¢→18.5¢
$76.27
$448.64
$83.00
+$6.73 (+8.8%)
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 45.0¢257.3 shares
45.0¢→31.5¢
$115.75
$257.26
$81.04
−$34.71 (-30.0%)

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
No 87¢100 shares
87¢→69.0¢
$87.00
$100.00
$68.99
−$18.01 (-20.7%)

Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
No 94¢68.2 shares
94¢→100.0¢
$64.06
$68.15
$68.12
+$4.05 (+6.3%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?
Yes 2.4¢210.1 shares
2.4¢→30.8¢
$5.04
$210.06
$64.70
+$59.66 (+1183.3%)
Will Trump say "Worker" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 32¢115 shares
32¢→54.5¢
$36.80
$115.00
$62.68
+$25.87 (+70.3%)

Will The Left win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Yes 2.2¢1.3K shares
2.2¢→4.2¢
$28.46
$1.3K
$52.97
+$24.51 (+86.1%)

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
No 24¢179.6 shares
24¢→26.5¢
$43.11
$179.64
$47.60
+$4.49 (+10.4%)
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 56.6¢108 shares
56.6¢→44¢
$61.17
$108.03
$47.53
−$13.64 (-22.3%)
Will Trump say "Military" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
No 41¢100 shares
41¢→47¢
$41.00
$100.00
$47.00
+$6.00 (+14.6%)

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 15¢110.9 shares
15¢→25.8¢
$16.64
$110.92
$28.62
+$11.98 (+72.0%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?
Yes 14.0¢313.3 shares
14.0¢→9¢
$43.86
$313.32
$28.20
−$15.67 (-35.7%)
Will Warsh say "Independence" during July Press Conference?
No 56.0¢41.5 shares
56.0¢→57.5¢
$23.23
$41.49
$23.86
+$0.62 (+2.7%)

Will Warsh say "Oil" during July Press Conference?
No 22¢60 shares
22¢→27¢
$13.20
$59.99
$16.20
+$3.00 (+22.7%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?
Yes 23¢50 shares
23¢→27.5¢
$11.50
$50.00
$13.75
+$2.25 (+19.6%)

Ebola pandemic in 2026?
No 92¢12.5 shares
92¢→96.4¢
$11.50
$12.50
$12.04
+$0.54 (+4.7%)

Iran leadership change by September 30?
Yes 11¢100 shares
11¢→12¢
$11.00
$100.00
$12.00
+$1.00 (+9.1%)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes 72¢11.4 shares
72¢→55.5¢
$8.23
$11.43
$6.34
−$1.89 (-22.9%)

Will Warsh say "Trump" during July Press Conference?
Yes 10¢48 shares
10¢→11¢
$4.80
$48.00
$5.28
+$0.48 (+10.0%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
Yes 2.4¢274.1 shares
2.4¢→1.6¢
$6.58
$274.06
$4.25
−$2.33 (-35.4%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
Yes 53¢5 shares
53¢→75.5¢
$2.65
$5.00
$3.78
+$1.12 (+42.4%)

Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Yes 5.1¢134.5 shares
5.1¢→1.7¢
$6.93
$134.53
$2.22
−$4.71 (-68.0%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
Yes 3.5¢377 shares
3.5¢→0.5¢
$13.26
$376.99
$1.88
−$11.38 (-85.8%)

Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes 1.2¢380.6 shares
1.2¢→0.4¢
$4.52
$380.60
$1.71
−$2.80 (-62.1%)

Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?
Yes 24¢12 shares
24¢→13¢
$2.88
$12.00
$1.56
−$1.32 (-45.8%)

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Yes 4.3¢30.8 shares
4.3¢→4.7¢
$1.32
$30.79
$1.45
+$0.12 (+9.3%)

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
No 66¢83 shares
66¢→1.6¢
$54.78
$83.00
$1.33
−$53.45 (-97.6%)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?
Yes 20¢61.3 shares
20¢→1.8¢
$12.26
$61.30
$1.10
−$11.16 (-91.0%)

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
Yes 4.7¢64.4 shares
4.7¢→0.5¢
$3.03
$64.40
$0.35
−$2.67 (-88.3%)
Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next YouTube video?
No 20¢215 shares
20¢→0¢
$43.00
$215.00
Lost
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during his next YouTube video?
No 16¢4.5 shares
16¢→0¢
$0.72
$4.50
Lost
