Super Heavy booster explodes?
$226,822 Vol.
Yes
Successful splash down?
$64,413 Vol.
Yes
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$47,401 Vol.
No
June 30
$6,535 Vol.
No
July 15
$18,026 Vol.
No
July 16
$57,422 Vol.
No
July 17
$55,133 Vol.
No
July 20
$20,524 Vol.
No
July 23
$58,480 Vol.
No
July 24
$23,424 Vol.
Yes
July 25
$14,403 Vol.
Yes
July 26
$21,712 Vol.
Yes
July 27
$13,870 Vol.
Yes
July 31
$126,245 Vol.
Yes
August 31
$132,751 Vol.
Yes
Rules
If the 13th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no…