October 31
$507 Vol.
98%
September 30
$6,958 Vol.
94%
Super Heavy booster explodes?
$2,266 Vol.
87%
September 15
$75 Vol.
80%
Chopsticks catch Starship?
$2,784 Vol.
54%
Successful splash down?
$342 Vol.
37%
August 31
$18,439 Vol.
26%
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$1,134 Vol.
3%
August 22
$611 Vol.
1%
Rules
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no…